Author: joemartuccillc

By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

Dry January, the annual ritual in which people refrain from drinking alcohol to kick off the new year, extended to Mother Nature as well. However, in her case, the dry January wasn’t about a lack of alcohol, but a lack of precipitation, significantly lowering the chances that we will end the drought by the time spring comes.

Dry on the coast

The Coastal Region of New Jersey, roughly anywhere from the Garden State Parkway on east, including most of Cape May County, had the third or fourth driest January on record, according to the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist.

Records going back to 1895 show it was among the driest 2-3% of Januarys on record, according to Dave Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist.

Snow not enough

Don’t be fooled by the snow cover on the ground, the cold weather and lack of watering you did in January. This is bad news for New Jersey.

Every week, January saw either an improvement or no change in its drought status, which is updated by the United States Drought Monitor on Thursdays using data through that Tuesday. That is, on Jan. 30, 15% of the state worsened from a “moderate” drought – a level one of four for drought – to a “severe” drought, a level two.

The South Jersey shore remained in the driest condition, located in an “extreme” drought at level three of four. More than a third of the state, 34%, is in this classification, which includes all of Cape May and Atlantic counties, as well as most of Cumberland, Burlington and Ocean counties. Our region has remained in this extreme drought from Nov. 12 through the Jan. 30 update.

While our Feb. 5 status is not known at the time of this writing, there’s no reason to believe our drought status will be better by then. We need around 0.75 inches of rain a week just to stay steady, and more to improve our status. We’re not expected to go much above 0.75 inches by the Thursday update.

I’ve been saying since our winter forecast was released on Nov. 27 that we won’t have enough precipitation to cure drought by the time the winter season is over. Sadly, that’s proving true.

Spring is coming

We have about six more weeks to improve drought fairly easily. Water usage is at an annual minimum and the sun isn’t evaporating much moisture from the ground.

But six weeks from now it will be late March. Water usage will increase as agriculture begins and sprinkler systems come back online. The sun will be stronger and pull moisture out of the ground through evaporation. By this point, we’ll need about an inch of precipitation a week just to keep our drought status steady, and probably 1.5 inches a week to improve drought. That’s a tall order.

The Climate Prediction Center forecasts equal chances of precipitation being either below average, near average or above average for February from their mid-January update. Those equal chances extend to their three-month outlook, which covers February through April.

Sure, it’s possible we wind up on the wet side, but don’t place your bets on it. Even average precipitation during this time will bring harm to the state, let alone below average.

Forest fire danger

Prescribed burning will be a challenge to meet the New Jersey Forest Fire Service’s mission to protect “life, property as well as the state’s natural resources from wildfire.” Prescribed burning reduces the risk of future wildfires by skillfully applying fire to reduce the underbrush, which is fire fuel. Typically, this begins in late February and continues through spring.

Most of the Pine Barrens range from a level five to a level nine out of 10 when it comes to burn probability, as of Jan. 31. I expect that to worsen in the next few weeks.

If conditions are too dry, it’s hard to conduct prescribed burning, and even skillfully applied fires can spread rapidly. Reduced prescribed burning just means a greater likelihood the inevitable wildfires that do occur this year will be bigger and spread faster.

Dry streams and wells

Many of us have well water once you go offshore. With groundwater conditions running “extremely dry,” according to the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), expect this to mean either your well will need to be dug deeper, or risk going dry completely and relying on outside sources of water.

Streamflows have also been suffering under the extremely dry conditions for the past 14 weeks, the NJDEP says. That will impact the amount of oxygen fish and other freshwater marine wildfire can consume. Expect impacts there.

Water restrictions

This one is a policy decision. I’m not a policymaker, nor do I know everything that goes into the decision. However, currently the state is in a drought warning. The next step would be a drought emergency. The last time that occurred was from March of 2002 until January of 2003, according to the state.

The current drought is as significant and severe as it was then, so it’s very possible that we will go into an emergency this spring if drought conditions don’t improve. We already have volunteer water restrictions in effect by New Jersey American Water. A drought emergency doesn’t have to mean water restrictions statewide, but in the 2002-2003 emergency it did.

On June 20, 2002, the state issued mandatory restrictions. They halted commercial power washers, of flushing sewer systems, and mandated odd/even days for watering lawns. Restaurants were told not to serve water unless requested by customers.

I can’t say for sure, but I bet that kind of restriction will take place if precipitation winds up at or below average over the next three months.

Read this on Shore Local News here

I flipped through the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) last week. It’s our big trade magazine. Among announcements of future conferences and photos of research meteorologists out in nature, was a journal article titled, “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change.” Given that we live in a hurricane-prone area, I read it.

Author of the paper Stephen Jewson, from Lambda Climate Research in London, shows that landfalling hurricanes have and will be impacted by climate change differently than hurricanes in general.

“The commonly heard phrase, ‘hurricanes are projected to be less frequent, but more intense,’ is somewhat unhelpful,” Jewson writes.

As the Earth gets a little warmer, about 2 degrees Celsius hotter than it is now, Jewson says the frequency of landfalling hurricanes increases. Specifically, we see a 25 percent increase in the biggest, scariest hurricanes – the ones called Category 5. On the other hand, the smaller, less intense tropical storms, which have winds from 39 to 74 mph, would not happen as often.

This is important because it’s not just any study about climate change and hurricanes. Jewson looked at the storms that affect us directly; the ones that hit land. It’s also worth noting that the Earth has already warmed up by about 1.62 degrees Celsius from 1917 to 2023, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. These changes are already happening.

“For instance, there are previously published results that suggest the frequency of hurricanes may decrease. After conversion to landfall, however, the same results suggest that the frequency of hurricanes may increase,” Jewson says.

Even though New Jersey hasn’t technically had a landfalling hurricane since the Vagabond hurricane of 1903, Superstorm Sandy, which lost its hurricane status just before making landfall, is still fresh in many people’s minds. Tropical Storm Fay was also at sub hurricane status when it made landfall near Brigantine in 2020.

Here is a rough breakdown of how much more or less likely tropical storms and hurricanes would be on the North American East Coast, which includes us, with a 2 degree increase in temperatures.

Tropical Storms:

20 percent less frequent

Category 1 Hurricanes:

No change

Category 2 Hurricanes:

10 percent more frequent

Category 3 Hurricanes:

15 percent more frequent

Category 4 Hurricanes:

20 percent more frequent

Category 5 Hurricanes:

25 percent more frequent

This is just my professional opinion, but these changes actually are more good than bad for New Jersey. There’s a 1 percent chance of a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall, or being within 50 miles of landfalling in any given year, according to Colorado State University.

Even a 25 percent increase on top of that still means it’s very unlikely we’re getting hit by a storm of that magnitude. For context, our last landfalling hurricane that strong was Sept. 3, 1821, says David Ludlum, who founded WeatherWise magazine.

Tropical storms are more of what we see, with a 23 percent annual occurrence, according to Colorado State. So a decrease there would be welcomed. Remember, too, that Colorado State University considers decades of data, so the latest Jewson research is already partially baked into what the university’s data says.

You always have to be ready for trouble from the ocean. Jim Eberwine, retired National Weather Service meteorologist and current Absecon emergency manager, says we’re in a year-round hurricane season. After hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, we get into nor’easter season. That’s when we can still get big waves and flooding, just like with hurricanes.

By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

With the cold, many of us think snow. In the beach towns, we average around 15 inches of snow in a winter. Meanwhile, inland areas in Atlantic and Cape May counties typically see between 16 and 20 inches of snow in a winter.

By my count there are eight ways that it can snow in our area. Not all of them will bring a complete, start-to-finish snow. After all, we know how it is at the shore. There’s usually some rain, sleet or freezing rain mixing in. However, let’s take a look at each of them, grouping it by how often it typically happens.

Nearly every winter:

“Miller” storms

This is a type of nor’easter winter storm defined by the direction the winds usually blow from. The name comes from J.E. Miller, the researcher who came up with this naming system for East Coast storms in 1946.

They can happen any time of the year, bringing rain, wind and coastal flooding. However, it’s during the winter when they’re most frequent, and most apt to bring snow, sleet and freezing rain.

Whether it’s a Miller A or Miller B depends on where the low-pressure system originates.

In a Miller A storm, the low-pressure system develops in the Deep South, or the Gulf of Mexico. It strengthens as it moves up the East Coast. Then it will usually make a sharper turn to the northeast in the Mid-Atlantic or the Northeast. The Boxing Day blizzard of 2010 is an example of a Miller A storm when 10 to 20 inches of snow fell along the Jersey Shore.

Meanwhile, Miller B storms are a little more common. Miller B storms start as low-pressure systems moving east from the Great Plains and Midwest. The system then weakens as it hits the Appalachian Mountains. However, it transfers its energy offshore. Typically, this can happen between North Carolina and Long Island. It will then move to the northeast, strengthening as it does so.

Miller B storms are typically a little weaker than Miller A storms, since the ocean runway that intensifies storms is shorter than the Gulf of Mexico or Southeast forming Miller A systems.

However, they are still our best shot of plowable snows, with sleet, freezing rain and coastal flooding. In fact, the snow on Jan. 6 was a Miller B storm.

Alberta Clipper

Alberta Clippers are low-pressure systems that are cold and fast-moving. They’re named after where they originate, in the Prairies of Alberta, Canada. After forming, they typically arrive in New Jersey in two or three days.

The low-pressure systems are fairly weak. Therefore, when we receive snow from these, it’s either light (under a half inch per hour) or moderate (a half inch to an inch per hour). Gusty winds come with this, too. However, they’ll be from the south, turning to the northwest with time. Alberta clippers happen numerous times a winter in New Jersey.

Snow Squalls

Think of snow squalls like a thunderstorm. They’re brief, but intense.

Snow squalls happen about once a winter or so here. Typically, they’ll form in Pennsylvania and quickly move east, dissipating as they do so. We see the weakened leftovers.

These can bring a quick inch or two of snow. Even if they don’t, they still will bring whiteout conditions. Also, like thunderstorms, strong gusts of wind are common. Power outages and wind damage aren’t ruled out.

Happens on occasion:

Norlun trough

A norlun trough is a highly focused area of snow on the northwest side of a low-pressure system. This is caused by an axis of shifting winds.

Snow from a norlun trough only lasts a few hours. It gives meteorologists headaches as the heavy band may only be 20 or 30 miles wide. A matter of miles makes the difference between snow you can easily brush off your car, or one where the snowplow will come around multiple times.

A great example of this happened on Dec. 5, 2018. Brigantine reported 7.5 inches of snow. Southern Ocean City picked up 2.5 inches of snow. Meanwhile, Toms River and Cape May had no measurable snow. That’s a narrow band of snow. My estimate is this happens two or three times per decade at the Jersey Shore.

Delaware Bay Effect Snow

My favorite kind of snow, which happens at part of the Jersey Shore, is Delaware Bay effect snow, the lesser-known sibling of the infamous lake effect snow from the Great Lakes. This only happens in lower Cape May County.

Similar to the more famous version of the phenomenon, this is caused by very cold air going over the relatively milder Delaware Bay. Specifically, it’s when the air temperature about 5,000 feet high is 23 degrees lower than the temperature of the bay surface, according to Penn State University.

Using the average bay temperatures during the winter, that means temperatures 5,000 feet high must be about 15 degrees or so. That happens a few times during the winter. However, winds need to be nearly due northwest to pick up the moisture off Delaware Bay. Since the bay is much smaller than the Great Lakes, there is little margin for error.

Plus, winds should be at least 15 mph. Add that all up, and Delaware Bay effect snow only happens a few times a decade. When it does happen, it’s typically flurries. However, an inch or two occurs on rare occasions.

Ocean Effect Snow

Ocean effect snow mirrors Delaware Bay effect snow, where cold air crosses warmer water. This happens when there is a northeast wind. There are two ways in which we’ll see flakes fly from this.

1. Cold northeast winds from Arctic high-pressure over Quebec or Atlantic Canada. This rarely occurs at the Jersey Shore, but will happen once or twice a winter in Eastern New England.
2. During the late stages of nor’easters, winds will be from the northeast. This leads to low-level snow under larger storm clouds. When it happens, this is most often in Ocean and Atlantic counties. This still doesn’t happen every winter, though.

It’s rare, but it happens:

Lake effect snow

Snow from the Great Lakes will reach New Jersey each winter. However, for this type of snow to fall in Atlantic and Cape May counties, everything has to be just right.

The Appalachian Mountains usually dry out the snow before it gets to the other side. Also, what is snow in the mountains might just turn to rain when it reaches here. The snow would need to come from Lake Erie, with the wind blowing directly from the west-northwest. The last time this happened was on Dec. 29, 2020, but it was just flurries. Snow that sticks around happens once a decade, if that.