A “severe” drought (level 2/4) drought now engulfs 50% of New Jersey, including most of the Jersey Shore, according to the United States Drought Monitor on May 14. That’s 30% increase from last week.
The NJ Department of Environmental Protection put the state in a drought warning in November. However, if widespread, soaking rain does not come in the next month, mandatory water restrictions would be possible. That comment comes from State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson from our Monthly Weather Roundup show on May 5.
The Cape May Lutheran Church has invited Joe Martucci to speak at their Lunch and Learn on Wednesday, May 20th. Now, this year, they added a Zoom option for everyone up and down the Jersey Shore. It’s free!
The event starts at 12PM. Joe will speak about changes in tidal flooding over the decades, as well as give an outlook on the 2026 hurricane season. NJ has a 19% chance of being within 50 miles of a tropical storm or hurricane, lower than average.
Drought continues for the sixth month in a row in New Jersey, according to the state’s Department of Environmental Protection. Now, though, other indicators are showing warning signs of a crippling drought, too.
Believe it or not, April was in the top 10 for warmest Aprils since records started in 1895. That’s true even though April 21 brought a killing freeze to most of New Jersey only seen once or twice a decade.
Recap the month of weather that was. It’s all Jersey, with two of Jersey’s best weather guys. New Jersey State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson as well as Meteorologist Joe Martucci, owner of Cup A Joe Weather and Drone, take you through it all.
TUESDAY’S FORECAST: Drought continues in NJ and NOAA forecasts it to persist into the dog days of summer. Yikes. 5 of the next 7 days has rain in the forecast. However, no rain soakers are the horizon.
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When I talk about this in my weather videos, or post about it on social media, some variation of the same question comes up.
“How could the Jersey Shore be in drought? We had so much snow last winter.”
While yes, we did have well-above-average snowfall (26.1 inches at Atlantic City International Airport, 18.6 inches in Margate, and 39.2 inches in Long Branch), but lots of snow doesn’t necessarily cure a drought. The correlation is pretty weak.
Drought is defined as “a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance,” according to the American Meteorological Society. In other words, if the water going into the environment is less than the water being taken out of the environment (by humans, animals, evaporation, etc.) for a long period of time, you go into drought.
Water comes into the environment by precipitation. Snow is precipitation, so is rain. However, on average in New Jersey, it takes 11 inches of snow to get 1 inch of precipitation. Meanwhile, 1 inch of rain equals 1 inch of precipitation.
Snow to liquid ratio climatology. On average for New Jersey, it takes 10 to 11 inches of snow to produce one inch of precipitation. (via the National Weather Service)
Here’s a look at how much snow, precipitation and average precipitation fell at Atlantic City International Airport from December to February:
In December, there were 2.2 inches of snow, 3.03 inches of precipitation, vs. 3.76 inches of average precipitation.
January saw 6.7 inches of snow, 3.78 inches of precipitation, vs. 3.44 inches of average precipitation.
February recorded 17.2 inches of snow, 3.53 inches of precipitation, vs. 3.12 inches of average precipitation.
Snowfall was about 75% above average during this time. Precipitation was about 5% below average.
What about the snowpack?
This winter probably felt extra long because the snow was on the ground for so long. Twenty-nine days had at least 1 inch of snow covering the ground at Atlantic City International Airport, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the sixth longest since records began in 1945.
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Snow on the ground helps prevent drought from worsening. It allows for snow to slowly melt and seep into the ground. It also prevents the sun from pulling water from the ground and evaporating into the atmosphere.
However, the snowpack wasn’t deep enough nor did it hang around long enough to have a significant impact on the drought.
All things considered, it was a lack of precipitation in March that slid the Jersey Shore into a deeper drought.
Drought outlook for NJ
NOAA is forecasting that drought conditions will persist through the end of July, according to its April 30 update.
Precipitation across the Jersey Shore, not just in a town or two, needs to average at least 5 inches during this time in order to drown out the drought. More than 4 inches of evaporation occurs during June and July.
We’ll need a few coastal storms, or a very gloomy next month or two, in order to do that. If not, don’t be surprised to see mandatory water restrictions by the end of the summer.
TUESDAY’S FORECAST | What a difference a week makes! Most inland spots were below freezing this morning. It’ll get warmer but it’ll be a far cry for last week’s record heat.
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SATURDAY’S FORECAST | Temperatures will be 20, even 30 degrees cooler Saturday than where we were Wednesday and Thursday. Weekend temps will be more like a typical mid-April weekend, though. In other news, coastal flooding returns to the Jersey Shore Saturday evening and we time out when it’ll be dry for your Sunday.
FRIDAY’S FORECAST | Summer breeze, makes us feel fine for 1 more day! Then, back to our regularly scheduled April programming. A few pockets of much needed rain are on the way, too, but it’s not a washout. Let’s talk!
The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. We know that very well here in New Jersey, as does Colorado State University – yes, landlocked Colorado State University which just put out one of the most anticipated hurricane forecasts of the season.
The forecast calls for 13 named storms (a tropical storm or a hurricane) including six hurricanes, two major hurricanes – a Category 3, 4 or 5 with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
This is slightly less active than average, and less than last season. The difference is that last season had four major hurricanes, while the forecast for this year calls for two.
Likelihood of a tropical storm or hurricane
Colorado State University also breaks down the forecast into probabilities for statewide impacts.
New Jersey faces a 16% chance of a named storm this season, which is 7% below the historical average. The outlook for hurricanes is also quiet: the 5% probability of a standard hurricane is below average, and the risk of a major hurricane – Category 3, 4, or 5 – is effectively 0%. That isn’t a major departure from the norm as the state’s average risk for a major strike is just 1%.
Virginia and Massachusetts are the only two states with a double-digit percentage chance of a hurricane being within 50 miles of their states, at 14% and 10% respectively. All other states are in the single digits.
El Niño, the biggest hurricane season factor
When we look at the hurricane forecast factors for 2026, the biggest one is the transition to El Niño, which we are expected to have by July. This suppresses hurricanes.
When you have an El Niño, that means you have warmer-than-average ocean temperatures off the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In other words, the ocean is warmer than average off the coast of South America, extending to about south of Hawaii. That helps rip storms apart as they try to develop and move westward across the Atlantic.
Secondly, the trade winds that blow from Africa to the Caribbean are stronger. That means more stability in the atmosphere and fewer storms. We are expecting to transition to El Niño during July or August, and we could even see a Super El Niño as we go into the late fall and winter. That impacts on our 2026–2027 winter forecast, which we wrote about in Shore Local April 2.
Other hurricane season factors
Beyond El Niño, all other factors point toward more activity than usual.
From January through March of this year, we had warmer-than-usual Atlantic Ocean waters, stronger upper-level winds and a warmer-than-usual western Pacific Ocean.
All of that, for different reasons, increases the likelihood of more storms.
As we get to August, temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average in the Central Atlantic Ocean. The Central Atlantic is the key breeding ground for the long-track hurricanes that go from Africa to the Caribbean, and possibly up the East Coast of the United States.
So, imagine a tug of war – let us say one strong person matches up against four children. The El Niño-suppressing hurricane season is usually going to win out. However, you still have four smaller factors, the children, pointing the other way toward a more active season.
Learning from history
Colorado State University looks at analog years, or years with similar conditions going into the hurricane season as we have now. Four stood out to them.
More of the analog years point toward a less active hurricane season.
Another way to look at hurricane season
Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, combines the intensity and duration of a storm into one number. The stronger a storm is, the higher the ACE.
For example, Superstorm Sandy in 2012 had an ACE of about 13.5 on its entire journey from the Caribbean to a Brigantine landfall.
Sandy lasted for eight days as a tropical cyclone, peaking as a major Category 3 hurricane. This did not even include ACE potential had Sandy been a tropical cyclone during the time of landfall.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay in July 2020, which also made landfall near Brigantine, had an ACE of 1.5. Fay spanned just three days, and it was never more than a mid-range tropical storm.
CSU predicts a below-average year for total storm power, forecasting an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) score of 90 compared to the historical average of 123.
Closing thoughts
This forecast is good news for us at the Jersey Shore and for the entire Atlantic Hurricane Basin.
But remember, it only takes one storm to hit New Jersey for it to feel like an active season near us. Even last year, where no hurricanes struck the United States, we still had Hurricane Erin bring the highest summertime tide on record for much of the South Jersey shoreline.
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ACY Airport sizzled to 90F, setting a heat record for a second day in a row.
And that 90F today made even more heat history, too.
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