FRIDAY’S FORECAST: Summery today, summery and stormy for Saturday. It’s not a washout! However, there will be strong storms you’ll need to pay attention to I talk about in this video. Enjoy the sun and warmth in the meanwhile. Never worry about missing severe weather warnings again.
Get a recorded call from me when your location is impacted. WeatherCall ensures you stay informed for just $15 a year. Sign up: https://ngorder.wxriskalerts.com/db_app2.php?station=cajx
This article initially appeared in Shore Local magazine on 9/4/2025
The past 11 weekends at our beach towns graded a ‘B’ or above, but it still wasn’t enough as 2025 was the lowest performing summer in the eight years of my Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card.
How the report card is graded
Since 2018, we’ve graded the shore summer weekends from Memorial Day to Labor Day. That’s Friday to Sunday, but also Mondays for Memorial Day and Labor Day. Fourth of July is either included in the weekend or on its own. It was July 4-7 for the 2025 edition.
I say we’ve graded because you shape the report card. You helped set the criteria for the perfect ‘A’ for your summer shore weekends.
An ‘A’ requires temperatures between 75 and 85 degrees, no rain, winds between 5 and 15 mph, low humidity and sunny to partly sunny skies. This report card covers Cape May to Sandy Hook, so if it’s 90 degrees far south, but 85 degrees everywhere else, that won’t ruin a perfect ‘A’ grade.
The 2025 report card for the Jersey Shore
The final grade point average for the 15 summer weekends was a 2.9; good enough for a ‘B,’ but not good enough to get us out of eighth place of the eight summers I’ve graded. You have to look at the beginning of the summer to understand why.
From Memorial Day weekend to June 13-15, the weekends earned a C+, D+, C+ and D+. It was rough; so rough, we did a Shore Local article about it.
“The reason for these gloomy, cooler weekends is part bad weather luck, and part science,” I wrote on June 19.
New Jersey sat in the middle between two air masses; the jet stream floated over the state. That brought the cool, stormy weather. Then, in a stroke of bad luck, the same pattern repeated itself every seven days, on the weekends.
The warm, bright summer weather that most of us know and love doesn’t settle in until mid-June. Poor weather weekends early in the season are common. Still, 2025 was the worst start in our eight-year history of report cards up until then. After that, the Jersey Shore studied hard to bring up its grade, but 2025 never broke out of last place.
The 11 weekends, from June 20 to Labor Day weekend, were all either a B, B+ or an A. If we just looked at those, the grade point average would be a 3.3; that’s a B+! This included a perfect ‘A’ for the Fourth of July weekend. I was away on vacation, but just talking with you and seeing the weather data, it’s fair to say it was the most comfortable Independence Day weekend in years.
We also had another ‘A’ for Aug. 8-10. Like most of August, the humidity stayed low and the amount of sunlight stayed high.
This past weekend, Labor Day, earned a B+. The only downside was it was a bit too cool, in the low 70s for highs most days. However, it was plenty sunny, not humid at all and had pleasant breezes. It’s a great sign of the Locals’ Summer September to come.
This was the lowest grade in the history of the report card. However, the 2.9 is just half a point away from the highest grade earned in the summers of 2022 and 2019. In other words, the shore never has a poor summer, climatologically speaking.
Furthermore, there was plenty of good weekend weather after Father’s Day, when summer kicks into high gear here.
Final grade point averages by year
How will September’s weather be?
Temperatures should wind up at or just below average for the month of September. I don’t see a big change on the horizon taking us out of the generally cooler and drier weather pattern we’ve been in since the beginning of August.
High pressure should generally center itself in Pennsylvania or West Virginia. That will bring us another drier-than-average month, unless a tropical system comes through.
Then, since winds spin clockwise around high-pressure systems, our winds will generally be out of the northeast. That should keep ocean water temperatures in the 70s most of the month, but also keep our on-land high temperatures mostly in the 70s as well.
So, it will be very comfortable with plenty of good days to spend by the water for Locals’ Summer September.
We do need the rain, though. While not exactly known at the time of this writing, the beach towns should wind up with a top 10 driest August on record, according to NOAA’s Southeast Regional Climate Center. The mainland was still below average, just not as much. Farther away, Millville should be the driest August on record. Drought in New Jersey spread and worsened tremendously last September. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again.
Thanks for following the Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card. I hope you enjoyed seeing the grades as much as I like posting about them in my videos and on social media. Now, happy locals summer!
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.
WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | The sunshine and comfortably mild temperatures continue for another day! Turns out, these cool mornings are making history as well for us at the shore. Enjoy the sunshine! Rounds of rain return Thursday night.
Follow my work: www.cupajoe.live
Jolt your brand, advertise with me: joe@cupajoe.live
Labor Day is over and now it’s time for Locals’ Summer! Happy back to school day, too. It’ll feel like school weather. It’s another cool morning leading to a warm day! A series of cold front will pass with a few rounds of showers. Let’s see how wet it’ll be. www.cupajoe.live
Sponsored by: www.meteoodds.com
Meteorologist Joe Martucci and NJ State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson shared the same August recap and wardrobe choice of a blue polo shirt. Turning to the weather, the two detail Hurricane Erin’s coastal devastation with record-high summer tides and erosion.
They noted cooler-than-average temperatures, a chilly month start and end, and severe drought conditions, with North Jersey under a drought for the first time in months. The Rutgers 2024 Climate Report highlights ongoing drought and future weather risks.
Recap the month of weather that was. It’s all Jersey, with two of Jersey’s best weather guys. New Jersey State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson as well as Meteorologist Joe Martucci, owner of Cup A Joe Weather and Drone take you through the temperatures, rain, snow, coastal flooding and much more every episode. New episodes come out around the beginning of every month.
Cup A Joe Website: www.cupajoe.live
NJ Climatologist’s Office: www.njclimate.org
If you’re a summer resident or visitor to the Jersey Shore, it’s possible you’ve never experienced tidal flooding like this in your lifetime.
Margate was the most significant location for flooding on the entire shore. A transformer fire, electrical fire, six vehicle rescues, evacuations out of Sofia’s and Tomatoes, and a gas leak occurred, according to the Margate Fire Department. Water rescues occurred on the Black and White Horse pikes between Atlantic City and the Mainland.
Looking at tide gauges for June, July and August, Hurricane Erin brought the highest storm surge on record to the following locations:
Absecon, Atlantic City (Inside Thorofare), Sea Isle City, Avalon, Stone Harbor, Cape May (bayside) according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
If you weren’t in these locations, then it was the highest summertime flooding since Tropical Storm Irene impacted north up the Jersey Shore in August 2011.
The National Weather Service classifies flooding into three categories: minor, moderate and major. This was at the very high end of moderate.
Moderate flood stage is when traveling around our coast is downright difficult. I was in Sea Bright, Monmouth County on Thursday night, reporting on the storm. Route 36, the main road in town, was washed out going south, causing us to exit the island north, near Sandy Hook instead. It was also bringing water into unraised homes and businesses.
While moderate floods happen during the year, it’s almost always during nor’easter season, October to April, when fewer of us are at the shore. If you are here, it’s likely you’re not going out as much.
Still, even this tide was unusually high, ranked among the top 10 highest tides of any month on record in Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland counties.
THURSDAY’S FORECAST | Cool. Comfy. Those are the two ways to describe the weather this week so far, and most of the next 7-days, too. One round of rain is in the forecast for Labor Day Weekend and it’s not even much. Let’s talk!
Follow my work: www.cupajoe.live
Jolt your brand, advertise with me: joe@cupajoe.live
WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | Just in time for Pumpkin Spiced Lattes to come out, our *driest* air of summer comes today, feeling more like Autumn than the waning days of August. Watch and tune in!
Dominate your fantasy leagues and bets with weather-driven data. MeteoOdds gives you innovative tools, player/game weather impacts, and detailed forecasts. Join FF+ by using the code WEATHER and get 50% off, for life! Turn forecasts into fantasy wins — only at www.meteoodds.com.
This column initially appeared in Shore Local Magazine on August 7th
It’s a story that is told often in Cape May County.
You’re out by the water and you see storm clouds to the west. Your weather app on your phone flashes in bright oranges and reds, showing the heavy rain. It’s moving toward Ocean City, or Reeds Beach or Cape May Point.
But as the minutes go by the storm never comes. The radar turns light green, or maybe blank as the rain disappears.
That’s the Cape May Bubble at work, and there’s hard, scientific evidence that it’s a real phenomenon in the area. Compared to the rest of the state, the temperatures, and the number of thunderstorms and snow storms, are simply different here.
Cape May County geography matters
Cape May County is on a peninsula, surrounded by water on all three sides (Delaware Bay to the west, Atlantic Ocean to the south and east). Yes, New Jersey is also technically a peninsula, but the vast bodies of water around our southernmost county drive much of the weather we see.
Water warms and cools more slowly here. For the county, this means that towns stay cooler than most of New Jersey during the spring and summer. The extra water acts like extra air conditioning. Meanwhile, during the fall and winter, the county is milder than the rest of the state. County business leaders know this and over the years built tourism marketing campaigns based on it.
“Fall for the Jersey Cape” is one such slogan used in years past, promoting beach days into October, and plenty of comfortable days to explore the rest of the Jersey Cape. The result helped put Cape May County in second out of New Jersey’s 21 counties for tourism spending from 2021 to 2024, with $8.1 billion spent in 2024, according to the Cape May County Tourism office.
Between October and March, Cape May’s average temperatures are about 1 degree higher than Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Data shows that Cape May air temperatures stay warmer through May, like the water on the peninsula’s three sides.
By June and July, temperatures in both places level out. In fact, Cape May has cooler high temperatures from around Memorial Day weekend until early August.
Cape May County has fewer thunderstorms
The Cape May Bubble phenomenon I hear about most often is fewer thunderstorms. Turns out, that’s true. Most of New Jersey experiences roughly six hours of heavy rain falling overhead between May and August — peak storm season.
The one exception? The Cape-May-to-Vineland corridor. Only four hours of that type of rain falls here, on average, according to research led by Frédéric Fabry, director of radar observation at McGill University in Canada.
If storms pass west to east, as they typically do, the relatively cooler Delaware Bay during these months stabilizes the storms, weakening them to below the thunderstorm threshold used in the Fabry’s study. Not only are there fewer thunderstorms, but they occur later in the day, on average.
Cape May County, along with Atlantic and southern Ocean counties, has a preferred thunderstorm time of 6 to 8 p.m. The rest of the state is between 4 and 6 p.m.
Thunderstorms can happen any time of the day, but fewer and generally later thunderstorms lead to more time outside. That means a healthier South Jersey Shore economy.
There is no scientifically proven reason for this. However, conversations with Fabry and Dave Robinson, the New Jersey State climatologist, in years past suggest that the near daily seabreeze influences the later timing.
The shape of the coastline runs southwest to northeast from Cape May to Long Beach Island. It’s then positioned south to north from Island Beach State Park to Sandy Hook. Furthermore, Cape May County is just more southeast. Storms begin many times during the day on the east side of the Appalachian Mountains. By the time they get to Sea Isle City, it’s later than the time they got to Philadelphia.
Cape May County has less rain
The southern (or lower) part of Cape May County is also among the driest in the state. Here’s a look at the average annual precipitation for our major weather reporting stations.
The reason, in part, for the drier weather is the water being on three sides.
Seabreeze fronts are common here from March to August. Once the seabreeze front passes from the coastline, inland, the air is more stable. That means it’s less likely to rain.
Furthermore, Cape May County is the county farthest removed from the process known as upsloping, which brings rain to the foothills of mountains. In this case, that’s the Appalachian Mountains.
Cape May County has less snow
Cape May County is the state’s flattest and southernmost county. Therefore, having the least amount of snow just comes with the territory. The long-standing Cooperative Observer Station in Lower Township averages 14.8 inches of snow in a year.
From December to March, snow season, the water temperature in Cape May Harbor is between 39 and 45 degrees, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Nor’easters, and the northeast winds they bring, funnel this above-freezing ocean air into the county. How many times has Trenton or Hammonton been covered in 6 inches of snow, while Marmora or Ocean City barely has a flake? The relatively mild water is the reason.
Are there other bubbles in New Jersey?
Given the data, you can make the case that the Cape May Bubble is really an Atlantic City Bubble, a Somers Point Bubble and a Millville Bubble. This far southeastern corner of New Jersey experiences different weather than the rest of the state.
I had the opportunity to meet Fabry at the American Meteorological Society conference in Baltimore in January 2024. He still remembers when we first talked about the phenomenon in 2019. He was kind and laughed when I explained just how much people talk about the bubble down here.
Given Quebec’s deep-rooted history with tourism in Cape May County, it might be time we welcome him for a visit. Expect the storms to stay away if he comes.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.
News 12 did an excellent job covering the dramatic rescue of 10 people as a sailboat sank off of Avalon on July 25. Tom Kronsowski had me on to discuss the water and weather conditions that led to the rescue.
WATCH HERE: https://newjersey.news12.com/they-were-heroes-avalon-beach-patrol-rescues-10-as-sailboat-sinks