Tag: meteorology

  • How did NJ’s 2025 Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card grade?

    How did NJ’s 2025 Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card grade?

    This article initially appeared in Shore Local magazine on 9/4/2025

    The past 11 weekends at our beach towns graded a ‘B’ or above, but it still wasn’t enough as 2025 was the lowest performing summer in the eight years of my Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card.

    How the report card is graded

    Since 2018, we’ve graded the shore summer weekends from Memorial Day to Labor Day. That’s Friday to Sunday, but also Mondays for Memorial Day and Labor Day. Fourth of July is either included in the weekend or on its own. It was July 4-7 for the 2025 edition.

    I say we’ve graded because you shape the report card. You helped set the criteria for the perfect ‘A’ for your summer shore weekends.

    An ‘A’ requires temperatures between 75 and 85 degrees, no rain, winds between 5 and 15 mph, low humidity and sunny to partly sunny skies. This report card covers Cape May to Sandy Hook, so if it’s 90 degrees far south, but 85 degrees everywhere else, that won’t ruin a perfect ‘A’ grade.

    The 2025 report card for the Jersey Shore

    The final grade point average for the 15 summer weekends was a 2.9; good enough for a ‘B,’ but not good enough to get us out of eighth place of the eight summers I’ve graded. You have to look at the beginning of the summer to understand why.

    From Memorial Day weekend to June 13-15, the weekends earned a C+, D+, C+ and D+. It was rough; so rough, we did a Shore Local article about it.

    “The reason for these gloomy, cooler weekends is part bad weather luck, and part science,” I wrote on June 19.

    New Jersey sat in the middle between two air masses; the jet stream floated over the state. That brought the cool, stormy weather. Then, in a stroke of bad luck, the same pattern repeated itself every seven days, on the weekends.

    The warm, bright summer weather that most of us know and love doesn’t settle in until mid-June. Poor weather weekends early in the season are common. Still, 2025 was the worst start in our eight-year history of report cards up until then. After that, the Jersey Shore studied hard to bring up its grade, but 2025 never broke out of last place.

    The 11 weekends, from June 20 to Labor Day weekend, were all either a B, B+ or an A. If we just looked at those, the grade point average would be a 3.3; that’s a B+! This included a perfect ‘A’ for the Fourth of July weekend. I was away on vacation, but just talking with you and seeing the weather data, it’s fair to say it was the most comfortable Independence Day weekend in years.

    We also had another ‘A’ for Aug. 8-10. Like most of August, the humidity stayed low and the amount of sunlight stayed high.

    This past weekend, Labor Day, earned a B+. The only downside was it was a bit too cool, in the low 70s for highs most days. However, it was plenty sunny, not humid at all and had pleasant breezes. It’s a great sign of the Locals’ Summer September to come.

    This was the lowest grade in the history of the report card. However, the 2.9 is just half a point away from the highest grade earned in the summers of 2022 and 2019. In other words, the shore never has a poor summer, climatologically speaking.

    The eighth annual Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card

    Furthermore, there was plenty of good weekend weather after Father’s Day, when summer kicks into high gear here.

    Final grade point averages by year

    • 2025 – 2.9 (B)
    • 2024 – 3.3 (B+)
    • 2023 – 3.3 (B+)
    • 2022 – 3.4 (B+)
    • 2021 – 3.0 (B)
    • 2020 – 3.1 (B)
    • 2019 – 3.4 (B+)
    • 2018 – 3.1 (B)

    How will September’s weather be?

    Temperatures should wind up at or just below average for the month of September. I don’t see a big change on the horizon taking us out of the generally cooler and drier weather pattern we’ve been in since the beginning of August.

    The CFS forecast computer model for the month of September. The animation is for a week timeframe, seen on the upper left. The blues indicate cooler than average temperatures, which NJ is expected to see for most of September. (via TropicalTidibts.com)

    High pressure should generally center itself in Pennsylvania or West Virginia. That will bring us another drier-than-average month, unless a tropical system comes through.

    Then, since winds spin clockwise around high-pressure systems, our winds will generally be out of the northeast. That should keep ocean water temperatures in the 70s most of the month, but also keep our on-land high temperatures mostly in the 70s as well.

    So, it will be very comfortable with plenty of good days to spend by the water for Locals’ Summer September.

    We do need the rain, though. While not exactly known at the time of this writing, the beach towns should wind up with a top 10 driest August on record, according to NOAA’s Southeast Regional Climate Center. The mainland was still below average, just not as much. Farther away, Millville should be the driest August on record. Drought in New Jersey spread and worsened tremendously last September. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again.

    Thanks for following the Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card. I hope you enjoyed seeing the grades as much as I like posting about them in my videos and on social media. Now, happy locals summer!

    Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.

  • It hasn’t been this cool, this early in decades | 9/3/2025 NJ Weather Forecast

    It hasn’t been this cool, this early in decades | 9/3/2025 NJ Weather Forecast

    WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | The sunshine and comfortably mild temperatures continue for another day! Turns out, these cool mornings are making history as well for us at the shore. Enjoy the sunshine! Rounds of rain return Thursday night.

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  • LOCALS’ SUMMER! | Tuesday, 9/2/2025 NJ Weather Forecast

    LOCALS’ SUMMER! | Tuesday, 9/2/2025 NJ Weather Forecast

    Labor Day is over and now it’s time for Locals’ Summer! Happy back to school day, too. It’ll feel like school weather. It’s another cool morning leading to a warm day! A series of cold front will pass with a few rounds of showers. Let’s see how wet it’ll be. www.cupajoe.live

    Sponsored by: www.meteoodds.com

  • Hurricane Erin, Fall feel and dry weather | August 2025 Monthly Weather Roundup

    Hurricane Erin, Fall feel and dry weather | August 2025 Monthly Weather Roundup

    Meteorologist Joe Martucci and NJ State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson shared the same August recap and wardrobe choice of a blue polo shirt. Turning to the weather, the two detail Hurricane Erin’s coastal devastation with record-high summer tides and erosion.

    They noted cooler-than-average temperatures, a chilly month start and end, and severe drought conditions, with North Jersey under a drought for the first time in months. The Rutgers 2024 Climate Report highlights ongoing drought and future weather risks.

    Recap the month of weather that was. It’s all Jersey, with two of Jersey’s best weather guys. New Jersey State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson as well as Meteorologist Joe Martucci, owner of Cup A Joe Weather and Drone take you through the temperatures, rain, snow, coastal flooding and much more every episode. New episodes come out around the beginning of every month.

    Cup A Joe Website: www.cupajoe.live

    NJ Climatologist’s Office: www.njclimate.org

  • Hurricane Erin brings worst summertime tide, on record, to the Jersey Shore

    Hurricane Erin brings worst summertime tide, on record, to the Jersey Shore

    If you’re a summer resident or visitor to the Jersey Shore, it’s possible you’ve never experienced tidal flooding like this in your lifetime.

    Margate was the most significant location for flooding on the entire shore. A transformer fire, electrical fire, six vehicle rescues, evacuations out of Sofia’s and Tomatoes, and a gas leak occurred, according to the Margate Fire Department. Water rescues occurred on the Black and White Horse pikes between Atlantic City and the Mainland.

    Looking at tide gauges for June, July and August, Hurricane Erin brought the highest storm surge on record to the following locations:

    Absecon, Atlantic City (Inside Thorofare), Sea Isle City, Avalon, Stone Harbor, Cape May (bayside) according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    If you weren’t in these locations, then it was the highest summertime flooding since Tropical Storm Irene impacted north up the Jersey Shore in August 2011.

    The National Weather Service classifies flooding into three categories: minor, moderate and major. This was at the very high end of moderate.

    Moderate flood stage is when traveling around our coast is downright difficult. I was in Sea Bright, Monmouth County on Thursday night, reporting on the storm. Route 36, the main road in town, was washed out going south, causing us to exit the island north, near Sandy Hook instead. It was also bringing water into unraised homes and businesses.

    While moderate floods happen during the year, it’s almost always during nor’easter season, October to April, when fewer of us are at the shore. If you are here, it’s likely you’re not going out as much.

    Still, even this tide was unusually high, ranked among the top 10 highest tides of any month on record in Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland counties.

  • 😎Comfortably cool | Thursday 8/28/2025 NJ Weather Forecast

    😎Comfortably cool | Thursday 8/28/2025 NJ Weather Forecast

    THURSDAY’S FORECAST | Cool. Comfy. Those are the two ways to describe the weather this week so far, and most of the next 7-days, too. One round of rain is in the forecast for Labor Day Weekend and it’s not even much. Let’s talk!

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  • It feels like FALL for this reason | Wednesday 8/27/25 NJ Weather Forecast

    It feels like FALL for this reason | Wednesday 8/27/25 NJ Weather Forecast

    WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | Just in time for Pumpkin Spiced Lattes to come out, our *driest* air of summer comes today, feeling more like Autumn than the waning days of August. Watch and tune in!

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  • The incredible proof that the Cape May Bubble really exists!

    The incredible proof that the Cape May Bubble really exists!

    This column initially appeared in Shore Local Magazine on August 7th

    It’s a story that is told often in Cape May County.

    You’re out by the water and you see storm clouds to the west. Your weather app on your phone flashes in bright oranges and reds, showing the heavy rain. It’s moving toward Ocean City, or Reeds Beach or Cape May Point.

    But as the minutes go by the storm never comes. The radar turns light green, or maybe blank as the rain disappears.

    That’s the Cape May Bubble at work, and there’s hard, scientific evidence that it’s a real phenomenon in the area. Compared to the rest of the state, the temperatures, and the number of thunderstorms and snow storms, are simply different here.

    Cape May County geography matters

    Map of New Jersey with Cape May County highlighted.

    Cape May County is on a peninsula, surrounded by water on all three sides (Delaware Bay to the west, Atlantic Ocean to the south and east). Yes, New Jersey is also technically a peninsula, but the vast bodies of water around our southernmost county drive much of the weather we see.

    Water warms and cools more slowly here. For the county, this means that towns stay cooler than most of New Jersey during the spring and summer. The extra water acts like extra air conditioning. Meanwhile, during the fall and winter, the county is milder than the rest of the state. County business leaders know this and over the years built tourism marketing campaigns based on it.

    “Fall for the Jersey Cape” is one such slogan used in years past, promoting beach days into October, and plenty of comfortable days to explore the rest of the Jersey Cape. The result helped put Cape May County in second out of New Jersey’s 21 counties for tourism spending from 2021 to 2024, with $8.1 billion spent in 2024, according to the Cape May County Tourism office.

    Data via Cape May County Government

    2025-Tourism-Economic-Impact-BookDownload

    Between October and March, Cape May’s average temperatures are about 1 degree higher than Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Data shows that Cape May air temperatures stay warmer through May, like the water on the peninsula’s three sides.

    By June and July, temperatures in both places level out. In fact, Cape May has cooler high temperatures from around Memorial Day weekend until early August.

    Cape May County has fewer thunderstorms

    The Cape May Bubble phenomenon I hear about most often is fewer thunderstorms. Turns out, that’s true. Most of New Jersey experiences roughly six hours of heavy rain falling overhead between May and August — peak storm season.

    The one exception? The Cape-May-to-Vineland corridor. Only four hours of that type of rain falls here, on average, according to research led by Frédéric Fabry, director of radar observation at McGill University in Canada.

    Frequency of radar detecting rain heavy enough to be classified as a thunderstorm during the research period by Fabry et. al. Notice the lower percentages in far southeastern New Jersey than the rest of the state (Via Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society).

    If storms pass west to east, as they typically do, the relatively cooler Delaware Bay during these months stabilizes the storms, weakening them to below the thunderstorm threshold used in the Fabry’s study. Not only are there fewer thunderstorms, but they occur later in the day, on average.

    Cape May County, along with Atlantic and southern Ocean counties, has a preferred thunderstorm time of 6 to 8 p.m. The rest of the state is between 4 and 6 p.m.

    Fabry and his team took all radar scans across the Lower 48 of the United States to detect how many precipitation (A), thunderstorm-heavy rain (B) and hail (C) occurred over any given location. Echoes refer to the intensity of the radar beam that bounces off the precipitation and returns to the radar site. In New Jersey, that is either the radar site at Fort Dix, NJ or Dover Air Force Base, DE. (Image via the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society)

    Thunderstorms can happen any time of the day, but fewer and generally later thunderstorms lead to more time outside. That means a healthier South Jersey Shore economy.

    There is no scientifically proven reason for this. However, conversations with Fabry and Dave Robinson, the New Jersey State climatologist, in years past suggest that the near daily seabreeze influences the later timing.

    The shape of the coastline runs southwest to northeast from Cape May to Long Beach Island. It’s then positioned south to north from Island Beach State Park to Sandy Hook. Furthermore, Cape May County is just more southeast. Storms begin many times during the day on the east side of the Appalachian Mountains. By the time they get to Sea Isle City, it’s later than the time they got to Philadelphia.

    Cape May County has less rain

    The southern (or lower) part of Cape May County is also among the driest in the state. Here’s a look at the average annual precipitation for our major weather reporting stations.

    • Lower Township, Cape May County: 43.84 inches
    • Atlantic City, Atlantic County: 43.62 inches
    • Egg Harbor Township, Atlantic County: 45.96 inches
    • Long Branch, Monmouth County: 52.53 inches
    • Trenton, Mercer County: 45.63 inches
    • Newark, Essex County: 46.60 inches
    • Belvidere, Warren County: 48.21 inches
    Average annual precipitation in New Jersey in the year 2000. While the annual precipitation is slightly different in 2025, Cape May County still remains the driest place in the state on any given year (Via Oregon State University).

    The reason, in part, for the drier weather is the water being on three sides.

    Seabreeze fronts are common here from March to August. Once the seabreeze front passes from the coastline, inland, the air is more stable. That means it’s less likely to rain.

    Furthermore, Cape May County is the county farthest removed from the process known as upsloping, which brings rain to the foothills of mountains. In this case, that’s the Appalachian Mountains.

    Cape May County has less snow

    Cape May County is the state’s flattest and southernmost county. Therefore, having the least amount of snow just comes with the territory. The long-standing Cooperative Observer Station in Lower Township averages 14.8 inches of snow in a year.

    From December to March, snow season, the water temperature in Cape May Harbor is between 39 and 45 degrees, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Nor’easters, and the northeast winds they bring, funnel this above-freezing ocean air into the county. How many times has Trenton or Hammonton been covered in 6 inches of snow, while Marmora or Ocean City barely has a flake? The relatively mild water is the reason.

    Are there other bubbles in New Jersey?

    Given the data, you can make the case that the Cape May Bubble is really an Atlantic City Bubble, a Somers Point Bubble and a Millville Bubble. This far southeastern corner of New Jersey experiences different weather than the rest of the state.

    I had the opportunity to meet Fabry at the American Meteorological Society conference in Baltimore in January 2024. He still remembers when we first talked about the phenomenon in 2019. He was kind and laughed when I explained just how much people talk about the bubble down here.

    The man who proved the Cape May Bubble is real, Frederic Fabry, along with myself at the 2024 American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in Baltimore, MD.

    Given Quebec’s deep-rooted history with tourism in Cape May County, it might be time we welcome him for a visit. Expect the storms to stay away if he comes.

    Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.

  • ‘They were heroes.’ Avalon Beach Patrol rescues 10 as sailboat sinks

    ‘They were heroes.’ Avalon Beach Patrol rescues 10 as sailboat sinks

    News 12 did an excellent job covering the dramatic rescue of 10 people as a sailboat sank off of Avalon on July 25. Tom Kronsowski had me on to discuss the water and weather conditions that led to the rescue.

    WATCH HERE: https://newjersey.news12.com/they-were-heroes-avalon-beach-patrol-rescues-10-as-sailboat-sinks

  • NJ ocean’s warm – the direct opposite of last summer

    NJ ocean’s warm – the direct opposite of last summer

    This article initially appeared in Shore Local magazine on July 31

    Despite some stormy and cool weekends this summer, there’s one thing we can say about the Jersey Shore right now: “Come on in; the water’s warm!”

    The ocean water has been above average for most of the summer so far. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 75-degree water temperatures were recorded off the Steel Pier in Atlantic City on July 5, 6, 8, 12-17, and 23-28. In other words, over half of the July days, the ocean water temperature was warm. That’s more like South Carolina than South Jersey.

    It’s the complete opposite of last summer. June and July had zero days with a water temperature above 75 degrees. In fact, 11 July days were in the very chilly 50s, and 55 degrees was the 8 a.m. water temperature on July 18, 2024. Getting in the ocean was tough.

    To explain why summer 2025 has been an absolute warm ocean lover’s delight, I’ll use another mantra: “Life’s at ease with an ocean breeze.”

    Wind direction determines ocean water temperature

    Ranking behind the strength of the warming sun and the currents, the direction of the wind plays the biggest role in water temperatures in New Jersey. In fact, it’s the main player for the day-to-day, or hour-to-hour variations.

    Cooler ocean waters are caused by upwelling. Upwelling describes what happens when the typically warmer sea surface water moves away from the coast and out to sea. Colder water from the sea floor then rises to the top along the shoreline.

    This is a critical part of our marine ecosystem. That cold water is nutrient-rich and keeps our living ocean alive.

    Upwelling is caused by Ekman Spiraling, according to the American Meteorological Society’s glossary.

    A look at how Ekman spiral works. Notice the lower image. The water will move to the right of the direction of the wind. In New Jersey, that means a south wind will push the warmer, near surface ocean water away.

    I’ll save the meteorology for you, but for the Jersey Shore, and the Northern Hemisphere, upwelling occurs any time the coastline is to the left of the direction of the wind. In our case it means a wind from the southwest or south. The Jersey Shore is to the left of the air current. That causes Ekman Spiraling, which pushes that warm water away.

    On the other hand, warmer water gets pushed onshore with onshore winds. A wind from the southeast, east or even northeast will blow warmer-than-usual water in from the Gulf Stream our way.

    From the time climatological summer began on June 1, to July 28, winds were out of the favorable southeast, east and northeast direction 30% of the time at Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Yes, the airport is inland, but the large-scale wind measurement known as synoptic wind direction, is usually the same between the airport and the coast itself.

    During summer of 2024, winds blew from the southeast, east to northeast just 12% of the time. During the summer of 2025, it has been above the long-term average of roughly 20%.

    Go up the coast and you have had the same results only more often. Readings at Monmouth County Executive Airport in Wall show wind direction out of the southeast, east or northeast a whopping 55% of the time through July 28, according to the Mesonet. Last summer it was about 30%.

    Eighty-degree ocean water is possible come August

    Offshore winds should continue to be a focal point of the August forecast, and with the climatological peak of our ocean waters coming at the end of the month, a few 80-degree ocean water temperatures are very possible.

    While I’m not as keen on it as I was in our Halfway Through Summer Outlook column a few weeks ago, there is still a better-than-50% chance that the wind direction comes from the southeast, east or northeast more than average during August.

    August 2025 computer model sea level pressure forecast. Northeast winds are expected more than usual in August, bringing in relatively cooler air (via www.tropicaltidbits.com)

    We average at least one day with a water temperature at or above 80 degrees at the Atlantic City station in August. So, hitting 80 is not unusual. However, given the constant 70s we’ve had up and down the coast so far, more onshore winds would likely give us at least a few days in the tropical 80s.

    Shore summer weekend weather report card update

    The report card’s been holding its own over the month of July. However, summer 2025 will need to study hard, put in the work and give us beautiful, dry weekends for August in order to keep this summer out of last place.

    I graded the July 25-27 weekend a ‘B.’ That brings the grade point average since Memorial Day Weekend to a 2.7 – right around a B-minus.

    In the eight summers that I’ve graded the weekend weather, the lowest final grade point average was a 3.0 back in 2021.

    Climatologically, our weather becomes less rainy in mid-August. So, there’s still time to earn a few ‘A’ grades and dig out of last place.

    Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.