Tag: meteorology

NJ’s drought improves but path to drought-free will get tougher

By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

This article ran in Shore Local Magazine on March 27th. The original article had data through March 21 (read here). However, this version is updated to the 27th.

Mother Nature has made up for lost time, bringing plentiful rain to the state since March 5. That’s led to three consecutive weeks of improved drought status, according to the United States Drought Monitor.

The improved status is clearly visible in the latest update (dated March 20) from the United States Drought Monitor.

From New Year’s Day through March 4, 3.81 inches of rain fell at Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township. The report came from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. From March 5 until March 21, 5.55 inches of precipitation fell.

The Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City saw a similar increase, recording 5.21 inches of precipitation March 5-21. Before that, it was 3.44 inches since the year began.

It’s not just Atlantic County. Longtime weather reporting stations in Long Branch (Monmouth County), Trenton (Mercer County), and Philadelphia all saw as much or more precipitation since March 5. This is compared to the previous 64 days of the year.

The weather pattern favors more storminess through the first week of April. So the shore should continue to see steady or improved drought status. However, improvement for the rest of the spring is considered unlikely. We will say more about that in the moment.

On March 20 the South Jersey shoreline, from Stafford Township and Long Beach Island on south, improved from extreme drought. This was a level three of four drought. It improved to a severe drought, which is a level two of four. That’s our lowest level since Nov. 5, 2024.

Inland Atlantic County (west of the Garden State Parkway), was still in extreme drought, though. Those areas join most of Cumberland County, and a small portion of inland Cape May County. This is the only area east of the Mississippi River in significant drought, as my friend and New Jersey State Climatologist Dave Robinson texted me last week.

Still, New Jersey’s drought is improving. The 7% of the state in extreme drought is the lowest since Oct. 29, when the state was in the midst of its historic driest month on record.

Drought status between December 10, the peak of the drought, and March 20, in New Jersey (United States Drought Monitor)

The waning days of March, and the beginning of April bring plenty of opportunities to improve drought even more.

The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, gives a lean toward wetter conditions around our area through April 4. That’s because the jet stream – the river of air about 30,000 feet high – will be over or around New Jersey during this time. Think of the jet stream as the storm track, with a colder air mass to the north and warmer air mass to the south. This is in part a reaction to the polar vortex entering the Northeast last week, which I talked about on social media if you follow me there.

We’ll take what we can get. In March, 0.75 inches of rain a week generally keeps us from slipping further into drought. Over an inch, like we’ve seen for most of March, will improve drought’s status.

However, once we go into April, water usage increases. The sun evaporates more water out of the ground as it goes higher in the sky. We’ll need an inch per week just to keep up, with over 1.25 inches a week to improve drought. These need to be region-wide soakers, too.

Sure, 3 inches of rain in Linwood from pop-up thunderstorms is great. However, in order for the Kirkwood-Cohansey Aquifer, from which southeastern New Jersey gets its drinking water, and reservoirs for the rest of the state to recharge, we’ll need rain from a coastal storm or a large inland low-pressure system.

As of March 25, levels in the Manasquan Reservoir were at about 84% of capacity, according to the New Jersey Water Supply Authority. Typically, 97% is the average for March, according to the agency.

The underlying data still shows there’s work to be done. As of March 23, average stream flows over the past 90 days are still in the “extremely dry” category up and down the Jersey Shore. In the southern part of the shore, it’s been this way for 23-straight weeks.

I took a deep dive into the Climate Prediction Center’s outlooks. They break it down into three-month periods.

The way I read it is I should expect a more humid-than-usual summer. That will at least increase the probability of pop-up thunderstorms. That’s good news, but again, we’ll need widespread rainmakers, which are unlikely in our climate once we hit mid-June. Rain storms from tropical cyclones don’t make their way here until late July, usually.

In a bit of good news, there is a small lean toward wetter weather than usual here. A remnant storm or two would do wonders for us. We failed to get any last fall, which led us into this drought anyway.

In my opinion, the best case scenario is that drought doesn’t worsen over the next few months. Then we get a tropical cyclone or two to pull us back to normal.

The worst-case scenario: The extreme drought (level three) expands back to the Jersey Shore. The state would seriously need to consider their first drought emergency since 2002, and the mandatory drought restrictions that come with it, later in the spring.

The NJDEP issued a statewide drought warning last November which called for voluntary water restrictions.

March 27, 2025
We lived through the Jersey Shore’s windiest winter since 2010-2011

By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

This article appeared in Shore Local Magazine on March 20th. Read the story here, also!

No, it wasn’t just you thinking the wind was howling this winter. This was the windiest winter since 2010-2011, and featured the second highest wind gust on record.

At Atlantic City International Airport, the average sustained wind speed from December through February (climatological winter) was 9.7 mph, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. During the winter of 2010-2011, that number was 10.3 mph.

It’s not just the airport. Toms River (8.1 mph) was the windiest since 2010-2011. Meanwhile, Lower Township, at Cape May County Airport, was the breeziest since the winter of 2017-2018 (9.0 mph), according to the Mesonet. The top wind gust all winter was 71 mph at Atlantic City International, which occurred Feb. 16. That was the second strongest gust during climatological winter since records began in 1944.

The breezy weather lasted beyond climatological winter. Atlantic and Cape May counties had the most wind advisories. They either led or tied for the most issued by the National Weather Service this year up to March 14. (A wind advisory is issued when wind gusts are forecast to hit 46 to 57 mph, or steady winds will be 31 to 39 mph).

The number of wind advisories issued by the National Weather Service for the coastal part of Cape May County (National Weather Service).

The number of wind advisories issued by the National Weather Service for the coastal part of Atlantic County (National Weather Service).

Wind speeds this past winter were more significant than in recent years. However, they were still within the normal range for the period of record. Similar to temperature trends, it was ultimately a seasonable winter for wind speeds.

Since the 1970s, winds have gotten slower at Atlantic City International Airport, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. The winds we felt in the winter of ’24-’25 were calmer than what was normal before the 1980s. Back in the middle of the last century, winter winds usually blew faster than 11 mph. That’s about 20% stronger than the winds we have now.

Average wind speed, by year, at Atlantic City International Airport (Iowa Environmental Mesonet)

It’s not just ACY that has lighter winds these days. I checked two other airports with long records. At Monmouth Executive Airport in Wall Township, the winds have been slowing down little by little over the last few decades. But at Millville Municipal Airport, where they started keeping track just a few years after Atlantic City, the winds have dropped significantly since the late 1990s.

In Millville, the sharp decline can be explained. In 1999, the weather equipment was moved from the eastern side of the airport to its current location on the western side, according to NOAA. There is an area of trees about 350 feet south of there. While they meet the standard practice of being at least 100 feet away from trees, this still likely weakens southerly winds. These winds encounter the anemometer equipment used to measure wind speeds.

The positions of the weather station at Millville Executive Airport. The 3 indicates it’s location up until 1999. It then moved west to its current location, marked by the number 1. (Google)

At ACY Airport, there’s no clear year in the data that shows the weather equipment moved and caused lower wind speeds. The biggest drop seems to have been in 1978.

The airport moved its equipment in 1968 and 1995, but the wind speeds didn’t really change much before or after those years. However, there was no location change then, according to NOAA. There was no major equipment change, either. I asked the National Weather Service for an explanation but could not find one. Monmouth Executive Airport’s weather station also doesn’t have any equipment or location explanation for the lower winds.

There is research supporting the idea. Winds have been getting weaker in recent decades in the Northeast, away from the beach towns.

“We show that surface wind speeds have declined by 5-15% over almost all continental areas in the northern mid-latitudes, and that strong winds have slowed faster than weak winds,” stated Robert Vautard, research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research in a 2010 research article. The article looked at the period from 1979 to 2008.

Vautard argues that a combination of reforestation and urbanization has played a large role in this. To a lesser extent, a weaker jet stream contributed. This jet stream is a river of strong winds about 30,000 feet high that separates two air masses.

Urbanization makes sense. Atlantic County has grown a lot – 56% more people since 1970, according to the United States Census. Monmouth County, where the executive airport is, grew by 39%.

The forest idea works, too. Around the late 1970s, when the winds started slowing down, the Pinelands National Reserve was created. This stopped people from building there, so the forest got thicker. Thicker trees block the wind and slow it down. Atlantic City Airport isn’t in the Pinelands, but it’s close enough that it might matter.

Even so, this winter was pretty windy. There were 11 days when the wind stayed above 15 mph this winter.

The last time it was windier was back in 1991-1992.

However, in the 1960s and 1970s winter would have been the calmest season of the whole year. Even in the 2000s, you would consider the season’s breeze average.

Similar to this past winter’s temperatures, which were the coldest in 10 years, the wind was noteworthy, but in the grand scheme of things, similar to what we used to see. Mother Nature must have had nostalgia for winters past this season.

March 20, 2025
The coldest winter in 10 years just froze N.J.

By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

This story first appeared in Shore Local magazine on Mar. 6. Read it here!

Climatological winter – December, January and February – is over, and the latest data shows that this was the coldest since 2014-2015 for the Jersey Shore.

The average temperature was 34.8 degrees at Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, and 36.4 degrees at the Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City.

What stood out the most to me was how long the cold lasted. December, January and February were all colder than normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The only exception was February at the airport, which was exactly average for the season. Note that average here means the 1991-2020 universally used time. We’ll talk more about that later.

Monthly temperature departure from average

Here’s the Monthly Temperature Departure from Average in degrees Fahrenheit, according to NOAA:

December was -1.0 at the airport and -0.9 at the marina.

January was -3.5 at the airport and -3.7 at the marina.

February was 0.0 at the airport and -0.2 at the marina.

It truly felt like a start-to-finish winter at the Jersey Shore. This has become less and less common over the decades.

While all three months were at or colder than average, that conclusion is based off of the mean temperature from 1991-2020. Looking back at all of recorded history shows that this winter was more in line with an average one than a frigid one.

Yes it was cold, but…

Take Atlantic City International Airport. Out of the 82 winters on record, this winter ranked exactly at the halfway point between them all. Taking it a step further, the average temperature for the entire period is 35 degrees, just 0.2 degrees above this past winter’s temperature.

Go to the beach and we have Atlantic City Marina, one of America’s premiere weather reporting stations. It has had nearly continuous record keeping since 1873 – one of the country’s longest established weather outposts. Plus, situated right at the marina, its data reflects the true impact of the water on the shore’s climate.

This was in the colder half of the 150 winters on record, but not by much. It was the 68th coldest, putting it in the top 45%. The long-term average is 36.1 degrees, which is actually slightly colder than what we just experienced.

Neither Atlantic City International Airport nor Atlantic City Marina set any new cold temperature records. The last time either place had record cold, for high or low temperatures, was in 2022, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

The only new record was in Estell Manor, Atlantic County. On Feb. 19, the highest temperature of the day was just 30 degrees, the coldest ever for that date. Records there go back to 1966. While it’s not as well-known for climate data as the airport or marina, it still provides useful information.

Overall, this winter wasn’t extremely cold when looking at all past records. But compared to recent years, it was colder than usual – the coldest since the winter of 2014-2015.

Frozen waters

Ice is visible well off the shore on the Beach Thorofare in Atlantic City during January, just off of West End Avenue. (Photo by Joe Martucci)

The salty bays had some ice on them from late December to mid-February. In some places, the ice stretched far out into the water.

Ice was especially extensive on Jan. 24. Most of the Delaware Bay had a total ice concentration of 90%, according to the United States National Ice Center. Even on the Atlantic Ocean side, there was some ice in Cape May County.

The Delaware Bay shoreline, from roughly Del Haven, Middle Township, over to East Point Lighthouse was at least 90% iced over on Feb. 21, according to the United States National Ice Center. At least some ice covered nearly the entire Delaware Bayshore that day, too. That extended up the river to Philadelphia.

The freshwater ponds were frozen over for a long while this winter. Pictures on social media of people playing pond hockey, skating or even ice sailing were seen up and down the Jersey Shore. Furthermore, the cold reversed the trend of plants and trees budding in mid to late February.

Why was it so cold?

The reason for the coldest winter in nearly a decade has to do with two factors: the polar vortex and the cold ocean.

The polar vortex is a cold dome of low pressure in the stratosphere. It sits over the poles in its resting state. This winter, it stretched down into the northern United States numerous times. As of the end of the month, it occurred 10 times, according to Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in Massachusetts. For those keeping score at home, that’s a lot.

When that happens the jet stream – the river of air about 30,000 feet high that separates colder and warmer air masses – will dive toward the equator about 10 to 14 days after the polar vortex moves in.

The polar vortex and jet stream can stretch down to the equator anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere it wants. However, this winter, it was locked into the northern tier of the United States, as well as far eastern Russia.

Typically, stretched polar vortexes bring less bitter cold than a split polar vortex (when the polar vortex breaks into two). However, with it occurring 10 times it brought a persistent cold.

The second thing that affected the weather was the cold ocean. It made the air chilly at the Jersey Shore. The Atlantic City Marina was much colder than usual compared to Atlantic City International Airport.

The ocean water was colder than normal this winter. It was 45 degrees in December, 40 degrees in January, and 39 degrees in February, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Also, the bays were super cold, even below 32 degrees for a while.

The drought continues

In addition to temperatures, we have to talk about precipitation. We did not get the rain or snow needed to pull us out of drought. In fact, in my winter outlook I said the following:

“There should also be an average amount of storminess… Drought should recede during the winter, but I don’t believe it’ll be enough to cure our problems as we exit the season. Looking ahead, we’ll need a wetter-than-average spring to end the drought for good. Otherwise, there will be water problems.”

That was true for New Jersey as a whole. However, for the South Jersey Shore, “extreme drought” lasted all winter long, according to the United States Drought Monitor. That’s the third level with level four being the worst. Statewide, most of the northern half of the state dropped from level two to level one for drought. This change occurred by the Feb. 27 update.

Precipitation over the three months was between 6.18 inches at Atlantic City Marina and 8.70 inches in Galloway. This is for Atlantic and Cape May counties based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That’s 26% to 50% below average.

Snowfall ranged from a little below average in Atlantic County to a little above average in Cape May County. Margate was the lowest at 10.3 inches. Lower Township was the highest at 17.5 inches. I’ll have a full snow season recap later in the month.

Looking ahead

March does not look like a very wintry month. After the frigid cold on March 2-3, temperatures will mostly be at or above average. This trend is expected through the middle of the month. Think highs in the 50s and 60s, cooler at the beaches as the daily, chilling sea breezes return.

Cohen from AER believes one more shot of colder-than-average temperatures will arrive in the second half of March. If it does, we’re likely talking highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. That’s more of the typical wintertime cold, nothing exceptional.

In terms of precipitation, there’s no strong lean toward a wetter- or drier-than-average month. Getting a normal amount of rain would be helpful. March is the wettest month of the year at Atlantic City Marina with 4.27 inches of rain. It’s the second-wettest month at Atlantic City International Airport, with 4.52 inches. That much rain would stop the drought from getting worse, but it wouldn’t make it better.

By St. Patrick’s Day, we’ll need about an inch of rain each week. This is necessary to make up for the water that dries up from the ground. It’s also for the water that people use. To get ahead, we would need at least 1.25 inches a week.

March 7, 2025
South Jersey: The Unexpected Snow Capital of NJ

Read the Feb. 20 article in Shore Local News here!

NOTE: This article came out on Feb. 20 but was written on Feb. 14. As we know, there was no snowy nor’easter in New Jersey this week. That stayed in Virginia. This article is modified to adjust for that.

With two South Jersey Snow Specials down and another one possibly on the way, our area could beat out the typically snowy, hilly northwest New Jersey for the snowiest place in the Garden State.

As of this writing, we didn’t know what would happen with a nor’easter anticipated on Feb. 20, but it turns out it brought a record snow to southeastern Virginia. Meanwhile, only Cape May City saw coatings. There was no third South Jersey Snow Special.

However, Jan. 6 saw Wildwood Crest’s 8-inch report as the highest snowfall total in the state. 4 to 6 inches of snow fell in places like Ocean City, Somers Point and Margate, too. Meanwhile, once you went north of the White Horse Pike, snowfall totals were generally below 2 inches.

Then, on Feb. 11-12, it happened again. In an all-snow event, Cape May was in the top spot with 8.8 inches of snow. However, more than 6 inches of snow fell in eastern Atlantic County, as well as all of Cape May County; 8.1 inches were measured by Dan Forshaw in Somers Point, a volunteer weather observer for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS). In Ocean County, 6 inches fell as reported by another CoCoRaHS spotter.

It’s rare for the southeastern part of New Jersey to get more snow than the usually snowier and colder northern areas of the state.

Since the winter of 1939-1940, there have been eight times when either the Cape May area or Atlantic City International Airport got more snow than other major weather stations in New Jersey. These other stations are: Trenton, New Brunswick, Newark, and Belvidere. This information comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.

Here’s a look at those winters, along with the location of the snowiest place and how much snow they received. All data are measured in inches.

1939-1940: Cape May area, 28.1.

1967-1968: AC Airport, 18.5.

1978-1979: AC Airport, 43.1.

1988-1989: Cape May (Lower Twp.), 21.2.

1989-1990: AC Airport, 23.0.

2009-2010: AC Airport, 58.1.

2021-2022: AC Airport, 33.3.

2024-2025 (thru Feb. 15); AC Airport, 13.8.

If it happened before, then this winter has the possibility of doing it again.

There are specific reasons why each winter had more snow here than the rest of the state. They can be grouped into a few categories.

This winter, just like in 2009-2010 and 1988-1989, the storms that make snow are coming from so far south that our area is getting the most of the snow in New Jersey. When you go north, you get too far from where the storms are so places like Belvidere or Newark didn’t get much snow because it was too dry there.

The winter of 2021-2022 had that as well. A storm on Jan. 3, 2022 brought over 8 inches of snow to the South Jersey shore. Meanwhile, north of Interstate 195, there was no measurable snow.

However, later in the month, the Blizzard of 2022 happened on Jan. 28-29. The storm track was so far east that the Jersey Shore saw the most precipitation. Twelve to 20 inches of snow fell here, but Atlantic City International Airport only picked up 16 inches of snow. Meanwhile, Trenton and Belvidere saw less than half of that.

Some were just luck. The winters of 1967-1968, 1978-1979, and 1989-1990 all saw about the same amount of snow throughout the state. However, Atlantic City International Airport or the Cape May area saw just a little more than the others.

We need to wait and see how much snow we get from the anticipated Feb. 20 nor’easter. I think it’s possible for the South Jersey shore to get more snow than other parts of New Jersey this winter. However, we’ll need one more South Jersey Snow Special to do so.

Temperatures are expected to be colder than average for our area from Feb. 22 through the middle of March, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. While that doesn’t guarantee snow, that’s a help.

On the other hand, the forecasts for the upper-level weather pattern suggest that winter storms will take a more northerly track. It could be that when it’s cold enough for snow, it’s dry, or when a storm arrives, it warms up. That would mean less snow here compared to climatologically snowier spots farther north in the state.

Plus, as we deal with every year, our snow season is just shorter. Our average last measurable snow in Lower Township is March 2, according to NOAA. At Atlantic City International Airport the average is March 6. Trenton, Newark and Belvidere’s are all at least 12 days later. That gives these locations a longer runway to make up their snow deficit.

Ultimately, we are progressing well to once again create history in this region of the Garden State, but assistance will be required to achieve this goal.

If you have a small open space on your property and like weather, please consider joining CoCoRaHS. See https://www.cocorahs.org/application.aspx

Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.

February 21, 2025