Tag: meteorology

Goodbye La Niña and hello El Niño – possibly a “super” El Niño.

Expected between July and September, this shift in the Earth’s long-term weather patterns will define how we experience the upcoming hurricane season, as well as the snow and cold of next winter.

Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration give El Niño a greater-than-60% chance of developing during the summer. By the fall, during the peak of hurricane season, it’s an 80% chance.

El Niño or La Niña is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This refers to the water temperatures off the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, from roughly Peru westward 7,000 miles. When water temperatures are warmer than average, it’s El Niño. When it’s cooler than average, it’s La Niña.

Meteorologists break this down into four different zones within the ENSO region. I won’t explain it much here, but where those warmer temperatures are this summer and beyond will make a slight difference in what our long-term forecast will be.

Since the summer of 2024, we have been in La Niña. That typically means milder winters. However, both the 2024-2025 winter, and this past winter, were colder than average.

The frozen tundra of snow and ice we experienced for weeks this past winter bucked the La Niña trend, too. For hurricane season, 2024 was more active than usual, while 2025 was about average. That checks out with a La Niña pattern.

Let’s look at what El Niño will mean for both the 2026 hurricane season, and the 2026-2027 winter, plus what a “super” El Niño could mean for New Jersey.

Quieter hurricane season likely

When El Niño is present, hurricane activity in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin goes down; it’s that simple. The Atlantic Hurricane Basin averages 14 named storms – seven hurricanes including three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) per season, per Colorado State University. Since 1990, there have been 11 hurricane seasons with El Niño. Seven were less active, while two were about average and two were more active.

More than likely, this hurricane season will be as active or less active than average. With a 24% chance of the eye of a tropical storm or hurricane being within 50 miles of the Jersey Shore, that number should be lower as well. Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

During El Niño, there is stronger windshear in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Windshear is a change of wind direction or speed as you go up from the surface. This, in short, rips apart developing cyclones.

Winter temperatures

The stronger the El Niño, the warmer the temperatures. By itself, El Niño doesn’t mean much for our temperatures during the winter. Since ENSO records began in the 1950s, winters with El Niño end up about average at Atlantic City International Airport and the Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City.

However, when you look at the intensity of the El Niño, the pattern becomes clear.

Very Strong: 4.0 degrees warmer than average

Strong: 0.5 degrees warmer than average

Moderate: 0.7 degrees colder than average

Weak: 0.5 degrees colder than average.

The stronger the El Niño, the warmer the temperatures. That’s because the Pacific jet stream – the river of air about 30,000 feet high that separates two airmasses – pushes into the Northeast. That means more opportunities for us to be south of the jet stream, taking in milder air.

Winter snow: One clear signal

Like winter temperatures, using El Niño alone doesn’t produce a big trend in what snow could look like for a winter. Generally, it’s a little less snowy than average. However, when you look at the type of El Niño, there is a trend that screams off the chart.

When El Niño is in a moderate phase, it’s 13 inches snowier than average. For the South Jersey shore, that’s 25 to 30 inches of snow. Farther up the coast, that’s roughly 30 to 35 inches of snow.

Here’s the snow breakdown for Atlantic City International Airport and Long Branch, by El Niño phase.

Weak: 3.5 inches below average

Moderate: 13.2 inches above average

Strong: 3.4 inches below average

Very strong: 0.2 inches above average

The last two moderate El Niño winters were 2009-’10 and 2002-’03. Both brought plenty of snow, and winter storms. That included:

The Dec. 19 to 21, 2009 winter storm, which brought double-digit snowfall across the entire Jersey Shore.

On Feb. 5-7, 2010, over 20 inches of snow fell roughly south of the Atlantic City Expressway. Meanwhile, New York City experienced less than 4 inches of snow.

A few days later, the Feb. 9-11 winter storm brought over half a foot of snow to the shore.

The Feb, 16-18, 2003, winter storm, known as the President’s Day II or PDII storm, dropped over 18 inches of snow on much of the Jersey Shore and ranks as the sixth strongest winter storm on NOAA’s Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale.

Moderate El Niños sit in a weather sweet spot for winter storms in New Jersey. They enhance the jet stream’s pattern in a way that funnels nor’easters up the coast without warming the region enough to flip precipitation to rain.

What if a ‘super’ El Niño arrives?

There is no guarantee that a very strong El Niño, or what people call a “super” El Niño, will come this winter. However, given the confidence of El Niño developing late this year, it’s worth exploring. Severe-Weather.Eu has a nice writeup on it.

If one does form, expect a mild winter with a low number of nor’easters. However, when nor’easters do hit, expect plenty of rain, wind or even snow.