It’s the annual tradition! Every weekend, from the unlocking of the beaches Memorial Day to the Labor Day that just passed us, we grade the weather at the shore.
The grading is subjective. However, after listening to you, I think it’s fair to say an ‘A’ means the weekend’s weather had:
1) A high temperature between 75 and 85 degrees.
2) No rain.
3) Anything from a partly sunny to sunny sky. We could all use a few clouds to break up the sun.
4) Low humidity.
5) A gentle breeze.
This day in Asbury Park is what a perfect A looks like (via Joe Martucci)
Since this is an average of all the days, a few hours of cloudy sky won’t ruin a perfect ‘A’.
At the same time, this is for the whole shore. A weekend where Brigantine sees pouring rain while Asbury Park is dry won’t mean an ‘F’ either.
Since this is summer, weekends start early. My report card includes Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Memorial Day and Labor Day are also included in those weekends, too. Fourth of July’s weekend is based on what day of the week it occurs.
Sunday or Monday – Counted in with the Friday before the date.
Tuesday or Wednesday – Counted as a standalone date
Thursday, Friday or Saturday – County in with the weekend or Sunday following.
Hurricane season begins on June 1. Really, in New Jersey, we like to say that there’s a 12-month hurricane season. After all, it’s the water, not the wind, that causes the most devastation, and nor’easters bring plenty of water.
This year, there are six. They range from rip currents to wind forecasts, to the change in the size of the forecast cone that you see. Here are the updates below, including how you’ll be able to see them.
Inland watches and warnings on the forecast cone map
The forecast cone is the essential part of understanding what is going on with a tropical system. The cone shows the forecasted path, along with data on location, movement, wind speed as well as watches and warnings.
Before 2024, only the coast was outlined in the applicable watches and warnings (Tropical Storm Watch, Hurricane Warning, etc.) on the map. However, these alerts often went well inland and there was no way to see that on the map.
Current conditions and forecast cone for Hurricane Irene in 2011. New Jersey was 48 hours away from landfall, which came ashore as a weaker. tropical storm. Note that red hurricane warnings only outline the coast (National Hurricane Center).
Last year, the NHC added all areas that were in watches and warnings to the map, whether they were a coastal county or not on an experimental basis. This year, they continue to keep it, but “will now contain the symbology for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are simultaneously in effect (diagonal pink and blue lines).
Current conditions and forecast cone for Hurricane Helene in 2024. Note that red hurricane warnings extend inland to Florida and Georgia. also, there is a shaded pink and blue area in the Tampa, west coast, region of Florida (National Hurricane Center).
So, if the Jersey Shore counties were in a hurricane warning, and the inland New Jersey counties were in a tropical storm warning, all of the counties would be colored in on the map. If Atlantic County were in a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning, it would have a diagonal pink and blue line over the county. This came in handy during Hurricane Helene last September. Tropical storm watches were in effect as far inland as western North Carolina.
Before 2024, you would only know that if you lived in those counties, saw a news segment on it, or dug deep into the National Hurricane Center website. However, last year, you could see it right on the map. Of course, Helene brought catastrophic flooding to western North Carolina — $79 billion in damages were estimated to have occurred, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Rip current risks shown
When a tropical storm or hurricane is active in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, the National Hurricane Center will provide rip current risk information on a national map. This also includes places like Puerto Rico and Guam.
The rip current risks will be provided for the day of and the next day, along with a map showing the highest risk over the next two days. This is really for people who want a more national view of what’s happening.
Our National Weather Service local office has put out rip current and surf information for years. You can also check out my Sea and Sand video forecasts for Jersey Shore specific information. However, this is a great way to see the risks in one place.
The National Hurricane Center’s new Rip Current Risk map interface.
More lead time for undeveloped storms
June, July, October and November can bring tropical storms or even hurricanes that quickly develop and make landfall on the East Coast. Tropical Storm Fay made landfall at the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge at the far southern end of Long Beach Island at around 4 p.m. on July 10, 2020. It became a tropical storm just 23 hours earlier. However, the hurricane center knew Fay would hit New Jersey as a tropical storm even before it became a tropical system.
This update is for situations like this. The National Hurricane Center can issue tropical cyclone advisory products, like forecast updates, watches and warnings, 72 hours before the storm surge or wind hit land, regardless of the storm’s status at the time. Last year, it was 48 hours. So, this is an extension of it.
Extended wind radius forecast
The category of a tropical system is based upon the maximum sustained wind speed. However, tropical storm force winds (39 mph or greater) or hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater) can extend for long stretches beyond the core of the storm.
You have to dig through the hurricane center’s website for it, but they do forecast the size of tropical cyclone wind fields in each of the storm’s four quadrants: northeast (most destructive part), southeast, southwest and northwest).
In the past, the hurricane wind radius forecasts went out 48 hours. This year, it will go out 72 hours, a testament to the improving accuracy of hurricane forecasting. To find this, search for the “Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory product” when a storm is active. It’s abbreviated as TCM, too.
Forecast track cone will shrink
Most of the above updates are due to the impressive work done by the meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane forecasts have become better with time, allowing more useful information to be given to you, with bigger lead times.
Each year, the hurricane center updates the size of their track forecast error cone. This is based on the accuracy of the storm’s track over the past five years.
This year, the size of the cone for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin will be smaller at seven of the nine forecast periods from 3 to 120 hours out. This includes all periods 24 hours and later. The most significant will be a 6% reduction in size for the 60-hour and 96-hour forecast.
How the size of the forecast cone will change for the Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Basins in 2025, compared to 2024 (National Hurricane Center).
As an example, a larger cone in 2024 could have Atlantic City on the edge. However, thanks to this improvement, Atlantic City could be out of the cone. That has huge implications for emergency management operations, evacuations and more.
The official track error trend for Atlantic Hurricane Basin storms. Note the decrease in error since 1990 on all time scales.
Major update to Hawaii forecasts
The likelihood of a certain height of storm surge hitting a coastline is now operational in Hawaii. It’ll be initiated by the National Hurricane Center’s Storm Surge Unit and made available within 72 hours of hurricane impacts. Storm surge forecast maps began on the mainland United States in 2016.
Watch our Interview with the National Hurricane Center Director
If you go to my YouTube or Facebook pages (@JoeMartWx), catch a special interview with Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center. It’s all part of the Tidal Flooding Talk show I co-host with Dan Skeldon (a familiar name to many), and Palma Shiles as part of the New Jersey Coastal Coalition. When you have 30 minutes, give it a watch or listen.
The old adage goes that in New Jersey, once you get to Mother’s Day you can start planting your gardens. That holds merit. Mother’s Day in the United States is celebrated between May 8 and May 11 (May 11 this year), on the second Sunday in May.
At Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, there’s an 11% chance that low temperatures will be at or below freezing on or after May 8, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Go to May 14, and that’s happened just twice in the 80-year history of weather records at the airport.
Cross the bridges to the beaches and your risk of a freeze goes away completely. The latest freeze on record at Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City, is April 30. That was back in 1874, the first year of record keeping in the then-young city. Note that the northern Jersey Shore has had freezes as late as May 11. However, there’s only a 7% chance of a May freeze.
You don’t need to rely on the old adage for your planting advice this season. Your friendly, neighborhood, Shore Local meteorologist can help you with the question of whether or not it’s time to plant this spring.
Low temperatures on April 18, 2025, the last inland freeze of the spring, so far. (Image via the National Weather Service)
When was our final freeze of the season?
Was April 18 the last freeze in the inland parts of the Jersey Shore in the 2025 season? Woodbine (Cape May County), Tuckahoe (Cape May County), as well as parts of Ocean and Monmouth counties dipped below 32 degrees. While Atlantic County did not report a freeze, there was localized patchy frost, which harms young plants as well. At the immediate coast, the last widespread freeze was back on April 9.
It’s differences like this that we take for granted as residents of the Jersey Shore. Most places in the United States don’t have these kinds of microclimates.
What is the forecast for the rest of April?
It’s much more likely that we will go the rest of the month without a killing freeze. The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, was forecasting “likely” above average temperatures for April 26 to May 2 in their April 18 update. With average low temperatures in the mid-40s inland, and near 50 at the coast, you have a better chance of putting your ceiling fan on at night than a killing freeze. I can’t completely rule out frost in the rural Pine Barrens, but this is unlikely.
How about May?
The shore will be frost and freeze free. By May 1, we would need a historic polar plunge of cold air. Remember, too, that Atlantic City has never had a freeze past April 30.
For the inland part of the shore counties, 16% of Mays had a low temperature below 32 degrees. The most recent was May 11, 2010.
The general weather pattern for the Northeast in the first half of May is a thicker-than-usual atmosphere overhead. The thicker the atmosphere, the more potential for warmer air in the ground.
Of course, the cold ocean can kick in a chilly daytime sea breeze. However, sea breezes also moderate the overnight low temperature to the warmer side. So the risk of a freeze is low.
By the second half of May, freezes or frosts in this part of the state are unheard of. After May 15, you’d need a historic cold plunge to get one, and I just don’t see that happening.
You can plant with confidence now
Hidden Creek Farm in Stow Creek, Cumberland County, NJ
If you’re at the beaches, you can start planting if you haven’t already. It’s not unusual to begin planting at this time.
For inland locations, like Somers Point or Egg Harbor Township, I say go for it and let the fruits and vegetables grow. Farmers planted their asparagus and spinach weeks ago, and they’ll start harvesting in early May.
When I was growing up in Union County, we used to go to my Nonna’s (grandma in Italian) house to plant corn, plenty of tomatoes and carrots. It was one of my favorite days of the year. Each year, they would let my sister and me plant a fruit or vegetable of our choice. We tried growing watermelons with little success, and sunflowers with better success.
The plot was about 10 feet by 10 feet, but it felt like a jungle as a kid during the late summer and autumn, with stalks taller than me all around.
She is still with us, but we decommissioned the garden years ago. However, the memories last forever. I hope you have some of the same this season.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.
View the original article on Shore Local News on April 17 here.
You may have seen a number of articles come out in the first week of April with headlines like:
“Rising Sea Levels Will Threaten 323K+ In NJ By 2050, New Study Says: See The Map”
“Severe coastal flooding could threaten Wildwood, Ocean City, and A.C. by 2050, report says”
“New Study Projects Climate-Driven Flooding for Thousands of New Jersey Homes”
What do they actually mean? Why such a flurry of articles from reputable news sources? They sound kind of scary.
They all come from the release of Climate Central’sCoastal Risk Finder tool on March 31. Climate Central is a nonprofit organization based in Princeton, Mercer County, whose mission is to “address climate science, sea level rise, extreme weather and energy topics.”
I was fortunate enough to be asked by Climate Central to be a panelist for the public release of the product that Monday. More than 120 journalists and media meteorologists attended the virtual meeting to learn about the tool which forecasts future flooding and its socioeconomic impacts.
National Flood Insurance Program Policies In Force.
As of March, there are 200,636 flood insurance policies in force by the National Flood Insurance Program in New Jersey. That’s the fourth highest of the 50 states, ranking just above South Carolina. Furthermore, those policies cover over $50 billion worth of New Jersey property.
Below is a summary of what the Coastal Risk Finder shows for the present and future of the Jersey Shore, as well as how to use the tool. All of the data is based on an intermediate sea level rise scenario. This scenario lines up best with the options presented by Climate Central, in comparison with what has happened historically in Atlantic City, our primary Jersey Shore tidal location.
Interagency data from 2022 is the source for sea level rise projections used. Population is based on 2020 levels. To get the most out of the new tool, be sure to use a desktop or laptop computer.
Not much change in flooding impacts by 2030
According to the risk finder, 7.9% of people in Cape May County, and 1.9% of people in Atlantic City are at risk of water inundation in their homes at least once in 2030. That’s roughly what it is now. In other words, a flood 2.7 to 2.8 feet above mean higher high water (MHHW) floods the area at least once a year. MHHW is the average height of the two high tides seen per day.
By 2050, those impacts double in size
By 2050, according to the risk finder, 14% of people in Cape May County, and 4.8% people in Atlantic County are at risk from either sea level rise or a flood that happens once a year, on average.
This indicates a flood 3.2 to 3.4 feet above mean higher high water in Ocean City, which would involve most areas bayward of West Avenue, from Second Street to 18th Street. Compare that to 2030, where only areas bayward of West Avenue, from Third Street to Eighth Street, would be underwater.
Places that would flood once a year.
Our kids and grandkids could be at serious risk
Lastly, we’ll look at 2100. While most of us probably won’t be alive (I would be 109 then), our kids and especially grandkids would be around. That projects a vastly higher number.
According to the risk finder, 35% of people in Cape May County, and 16% in Atlantic County would flood at least once a year. When considering just the shore towns, that number jumps to at least 65% of Ocean City and the Downbeach towns would flood during a flood that’s 5.2 to 6.1 feet above MHHW.
Using Ocean City again, nearly everywhere bayward of Central Avenue would experience floodwater at least once a year. That’s nearly all of the island. Most of the Ocean City Municipal Airport would be included in that, too.
What else to consider
Your town’s emergency managers, elected officials and administrators take pride in protecting your property from floodwaters. The New Jersey Coastal Coalition, for which I do work, brings communities up and down the Jersey Shore together to share common sense flooding solutions. The result has been a reduction in your flood insurance premiums.
Ocean City is eligible for a 30% rate reduction this year. Longport, Linwood, Margate and Ventnor have all earned 25% off. Somers Point has earned 20% off.
The data and projections shown on the Coastal Risk Finder do not take into account future actions your town will take to increase their CRS score. It also doesn’t consider other actions being considered by towns and the state such the NJ Resilient Environments and Landscapes program.
How to navigate the Coastal Risk Finder
First go to www.climatecentral.org. Then go to Tools and select “Coastal Risk Finder” from the dropdown.
On the left-hand side, you’ll be able to select your town, county or state. You can then select your scenario. You can view the risk by year, good for viewing what sea level rise projections will bring. Or you can view the risk by water level, which you could use to see how another Superstorm Sandy (search for 4 or 5 feet) would flood somewhere now.
If you select the risk by year, you then go to additional settings to find your scenario.
For purposes of this article, I used the sea level rise + annual flood under “projection type.” Then, for “sea level protection source” I used U.S. Interagency 2022.” Then I clicked on the “intermediate” sea level scenario.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.
This article ran in Shore Local Magazine on March 27th. The original article had data through March 21 (read here). However, this version is updated to the 27th.
Mother Nature has made up for lost time, bringing plentiful rain to the state since March 5. That’s led to three consecutive weeks of improved drought status, according to the United States Drought Monitor.
The improved status is clearly visible in the latest update (dated March 20) from the United States Drought Monitor.
From New Year’s Day through March 4, 3.81 inches of rain fell at Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township. The report came from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. From March 5 until March 21, 5.55 inches of precipitation fell.
The Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City saw a similar increase, recording 5.21 inches of precipitation March 5-21. Before that, it was 3.44 inches since the year began.
It’s not just Atlantic County. Longtime weather reporting stations in Long Branch (Monmouth County), Trenton (Mercer County), and Philadelphia all saw as much or more precipitation since March 5. This is compared to the previous 64 days of the year.
The weather pattern favors more storminess through the first week of April. So the shore should continue to see steady or improved drought status. However, improvement for the rest of the spring is considered unlikely. We will say more about that in the moment.
On March 20 the South Jersey shoreline, from Stafford Township and Long Beach Island on south, improved from extreme drought. This was a level three of four drought. It improved to a severe drought, which is a level two of four. That’s our lowest level since Nov. 5, 2024.
Inland Atlantic County (west of the Garden State Parkway), was still in extreme drought, though. Those areas join most of Cumberland County, and a small portion of inland Cape May County. This is the only area east of the Mississippi River in significant drought, as my friend and New Jersey State Climatologist Dave Robinson texted me last week.
Drought status between December 10, the peak of the drought, and March 20, in New Jersey (United States Drought Monitor)
The waning days of March, and the beginning of April bring plenty of opportunities to improve drought even more.
The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, gives a lean toward wetter conditions around our area through April 4. That’s because the jet stream – the river of air about 30,000 feet high – will be over or around New Jersey during this time. Think of the jet stream as the storm track, with a colder air mass to the north and warmer air mass to the south. This is in part a reaction to the polar vortex entering the Northeast last week, which I talked about on social media if you follow me there.
We’ll take what we can get. In March, 0.75 inches of rain a week generally keeps us from slipping further into drought. Over an inch, like we’ve seen for most of March, will improve drought’s status.
However, once we go into April, water usage increases. The sun evaporates more water out of the ground as it goes higher in the sky. We’ll need an inch per week just to keep up, with over 1.25 inches a week to improve drought. These need to be region-wide soakers, too.
Sure, 3 inches of rain in Linwood from pop-up thunderstorms is great. However, in order for the Kirkwood-Cohansey Aquifer, from which southeastern New Jersey gets its drinking water, and reservoirs for the rest of the state to recharge, we’ll need rain from a coastal storm or a large inland low-pressure system.
As of March 25, levels in the Manasquan Reservoir were at about 84% of capacity, according to the New Jersey Water Supply Authority. Typically, 97% is the average for March, according to the agency.
The underlying data still shows there’s work to be done. As of March 23, average stream flows over the past 90 days are still in the “extremely dry” category up and down the Jersey Shore. In the southern part of the shore, it’s been this way for 23-straight weeks.
I took a deep dive into the Climate Prediction Center’s outlooks. They break it down into three-month periods.
The way I read it is I should expect a more humid-than-usual summer. That will at least increase the probability of pop-up thunderstorms. That’s good news, but again, we’ll need widespread rainmakers, which are unlikely in our climate once we hit mid-June. Rain storms from tropical cyclones don’t make their way here until late July, usually.
In a bit of good news, there is a small lean toward wetter weather than usual here. A remnant storm or two would do wonders for us. We failed to get any last fall, which led us into this drought anyway.
In my opinion, the best case scenario is that drought doesn’t worsen over the next few months. Then we get a tropical cyclone or two to pull us back to normal.
The worst-case scenario: The extreme drought (level three) expands back to the Jersey Shore. The state would seriously need to consider their first drought emergency since 2002, and the mandatory drought restrictions that come with it, later in the spring.
The NJDEP issued a statewide drought warning last November which called for voluntary water restrictions.
No, it wasn’t just you thinking the wind was howling this winter. This was the windiest winter since 2010-2011, and featured the second highest wind gust on record.
At Atlantic City International Airport, the average sustained wind speed from December through February (climatological winter) was 9.7 mph, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. During the winter of 2010-2011, that number was 10.3 mph.
It’s not just the airport. Toms River (8.1 mph) was the windiest since 2010-2011. Meanwhile, Lower Township, at Cape May County Airport, was the breeziest since the winter of 2017-2018 (9.0 mph), according to the Mesonet. The top wind gust all winter was 71 mph at Atlantic City International, which occurred Feb. 16. That was the second strongest gust during climatological winter since records began in 1944.
The breezy weather lasted beyond climatological winter. Atlantic and Cape May counties had the most wind advisories. They either led or tied for the most issued by the National Weather Service this year up to March 14. (A wind advisory is issued when wind gusts are forecast to hit 46 to 57 mph, or steady winds will be 31 to 39 mph).
The number of wind advisories issued by the National Weather Service for the coastal part of Cape May County (National Weather Service).The number of wind advisories issued by the National Weather Service for the coastal part of Atlantic County (National Weather Service).
Wind speeds this past winter were more significant than in recent years. However, they were still within the normal range for the period of record. Similar to temperature trends, it was ultimately a seasonable winter for wind speeds.
Since the 1970s, winds have gotten slower at Atlantic City International Airport, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. The winds we felt in the winter of ’24-’25 were calmer than what was normal before the 1980s. Back in the middle of the last century, winter winds usually blew faster than 11 mph. That’s about 20% stronger than the winds we have now.
Average wind speed, by year, at Atlantic City International Airport (Iowa Environmental Mesonet)
It’s not just ACY that has lighter winds these days. I checked two other airports with long records. At Monmouth Executive Airport in Wall Township, the winds have been slowing down little by little over the last few decades. But at Millville Municipal Airport, where they started keeping track just a few years after Atlantic City, the winds have dropped significantly since the late 1990s.
In Millville, the sharp decline can be explained. In 1999, the weather equipment was moved from the eastern side of the airport to its current location on the western side, according to NOAA. There is an area of trees about 350 feet south of there. While they meet the standard practice of being at least 100 feet away from trees, this still likely weakens southerly winds. These winds encounter the anemometer equipment used to measure wind speeds.
The positions of the weather station at Millville Executive Airport. The 3 indicates it’s location up until 1999. It then moved west to its current location, marked by the number 1. (Google)
At ACY Airport, there’s no clear year in the data that shows the weather equipment moved and caused lower wind speeds. The biggest drop seems to have been in 1978.
The airport moved its equipment in 1968 and 1995, but the wind speeds didn’t really change much before or after those years. However, there was no location change then, according to NOAA. There was no major equipment change, either. I asked the National Weather Service for an explanation but could not find one. Monmouth Executive Airport’s weather station also doesn’t have any equipment or location explanation for the lower winds.
There is research supporting the idea. Winds have been getting weaker in recent decades in the Northeast, away from the beach towns.
“We show that surface wind speeds have declined by 5-15% over almost all continental areas in the northern mid-latitudes, and that strong winds have slowed faster than weak winds,” stated Robert Vautard, research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research in a 2010 research article. The article looked at the period from 1979 to 2008.
Vautard argues that a combination of reforestation and urbanization has played a large role in this. To a lesser extent, a weaker jet stream contributed. This jet stream is a river of strong winds about 30,000 feet high that separates two air masses.
Urbanization makes sense. Atlantic County has grown a lot – 56% more people since 1970, according to the United States Census. Monmouth County, where the executive airport is, grew by 39%.
The forest idea works, too. Around the late 1970s, when the winds started slowing down, the Pinelands National Reserve was created. This stopped people from building there, so the forest got thicker. Thicker trees block the wind and slow it down. Atlantic City Airport isn’t in the Pinelands, but it’s close enough that it might matter.
Even so, this winter was pretty windy. There were 11 days when the wind stayed above 15 mph this winter.
The last time it was windier was back in 1991-1992.
However, in the 1960s and 1970s winter would have been the calmest season of the whole year. Even in the 2000s, you would consider the season’s breeze average.
Similar to this past winter’s temperatures, which were the coldest in 10 years, the wind was noteworthy, but in the grand scheme of things, similar to what we used to see. Mother Nature must have had nostalgia for winters past this season.
Climatological winter – December, January and February – is over, and the latest data shows that this was the coldest since 2014-2015 for the Jersey Shore.
The average temperature was 34.8 degrees at Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, and 36.4 degrees at the Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City.
What stood out the most to me was how long the cold lasted. December, January and February were all colder than normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The only exception was February at the airport, which was exactly average for the season. Note that average here means the 1991-2020 universally used time. We’ll talk more about that later.
Monthly temperature departure from average
Here’s the Monthly Temperature Departure from Average in degrees Fahrenheit, according to NOAA:
December was -1.0 at the airport and -0.9 at the marina.
January was -3.5 at the airport and -3.7 at the marina.
February was 0.0 at the airport and -0.2 at the marina.
It truly felt like a start-to-finish winter at the Jersey Shore. This has become less and less common over the decades.
While all three months were at or colder than average, that conclusion is based off of the mean temperature from 1991-2020. Looking back at all of recorded history shows that this winter was more in line with an average one than a frigid one.
Yes it was cold, but…
Take Atlantic City International Airport. Out of the 82 winters on record, this winter ranked exactly at the halfway point between them all. Taking it a step further, the average temperature for the entire period is 35 degrees, just 0.2 degrees above this past winter’s temperature.
Go to the beach and we have Atlantic City Marina, one of America’s premiere weather reporting stations. It has had nearly continuous record keeping since 1873 – one of the country’s longest established weather outposts. Plus, situated right at the marina, its data reflects the true impact of the water on the shore’s climate.
This was in the colder half of the 150 winters on record, but not by much. It was the 68th coldest, putting it in the top 45%. The long-term average is 36.1 degrees, which is actually slightly colder than what we just experienced.
Neither Atlantic City International Airport nor Atlantic City Marina set any new cold temperature records. The last time either place had record cold, for high or low temperatures, was in 2022, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
The only new record was in Estell Manor, Atlantic County. On Feb. 19, the highest temperature of the day was just 30 degrees, the coldest ever for that date. Records there go back to 1966. While it’s not as well-known for climate data as the airport or marina, it still provides useful information.
Overall, this winter wasn’t extremely cold when looking at all past records. But compared to recent years, it was colder than usual – the coldest since the winter of 2014-2015.
Frozen waters
Ice is visible well off the shore on the Beach Thorofare in Atlantic City during January, just off of West End Avenue. (Photo by Joe Martucci)
The salty bays had some ice on them from late December to mid-February. In some places, the ice stretched far out into the water.
Ice was especially extensive on Jan. 24. Most of the Delaware Bay had a total ice concentration of 90%, according to the United States National Ice Center. Even on the Atlantic Ocean side, there was some ice in Cape May County.
The Delaware Bay shoreline, from roughly Del Haven, Middle Township, over to East Point Lighthouse was at least 90% iced over on Feb. 21, according to the United States National Ice Center. At least some ice covered nearly the entire Delaware Bayshore that day, too. That extended up the river to Philadelphia.
The freshwater ponds were frozen over for a long while this winter. Pictures on social media of people playing pond hockey, skating or even ice sailing were seen up and down the Jersey Shore. Furthermore, the cold reversed the trend of plants and trees budding in mid to late February.
Why was it so cold?
The reason for the coldest winter in nearly a decade has to do with two factors: the polar vortex and the cold ocean.
The polar vortex is a cold dome of low pressure in the stratosphere. It sits over the poles in its resting state. This winter, it stretched down into the northern United States numerous times. As of the end of the month, it occurred 10 times, according to Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in Massachusetts. For those keeping score at home, that’s a lot.
When that happens the jet stream – the river of air about 30,000 feet high that separates colder and warmer air masses – will dive toward the equator about 10 to 14 days after the polar vortex moves in.
The polar vortex and jet stream can stretch down to the equator anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere it wants. However, this winter, it was locked into the northern tier of the United States, as well as far eastern Russia.
Typically, stretched polar vortexes bring less bitter cold than a split polar vortex (when the polar vortex breaks into two). However, with it occurring 10 times it brought a persistent cold.
The second thing that affected the weather was the cold ocean. It made the air chilly at the Jersey Shore. The Atlantic City Marina was much colder than usual compared to Atlantic City International Airport.
The ocean water was colder than normal this winter. It was 45 degrees in December, 40 degrees in January, and 39 degrees in February, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Also, the bays were super cold, even below 32 degrees for a while.
The drought continues
In addition to temperatures, we have to talk about precipitation. We did not get the rain or snow needed to pull us out of drought. In fact, in my winter outlook I said the following:
“There should also be an average amount of storminess… Drought should recede during the winter, but I don’t believe it’ll be enough to cure our problems as we exit the season. Looking ahead, we’ll need a wetter-than-average spring to end the drought for good. Otherwise, there will be water problems.”
That was true for New Jersey as a whole. However, for the South Jersey Shore, “extreme drought” lasted all winter long, according to the United States Drought Monitor. That’s the third level with level four being the worst. Statewide, most of the northern half of the state dropped from level two to level one for drought. This change occurred by the Feb. 27 update.
Precipitation over the three months was between 6.18 inches at Atlantic City Marina and 8.70 inches in Galloway. This is for Atlantic and Cape May counties based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That’s 26% to 50% below average.
Snowfall ranged from a little below average in Atlantic County to a little above average in Cape May County. Margate was the lowest at 10.3 inches. Lower Township was the highest at 17.5 inches. I’ll have a full snow season recap later in the month.
Looking ahead
March does not look like a very wintry month. After the frigid cold on March 2-3, temperatures will mostly be at or above average. This trend is expected through the middle of the month. Think highs in the 50s and 60s, cooler at the beaches as the daily, chilling sea breezes return.
Cohen from AER believes one more shot of colder-than-average temperatures will arrive in the second half of March. If it does, we’re likely talking highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. That’s more of the typical wintertime cold, nothing exceptional.
In terms of precipitation, there’s no strong lean toward a wetter- or drier-than-average month. Getting a normal amount of rain would be helpful. March is the wettest month of the year at Atlantic City Marina with 4.27 inches of rain. It’s the second-wettest month at Atlantic City International Airport, with 4.52 inches. That much rain would stop the drought from getting worse, but it wouldn’t make it better.
By St. Patrick’s Day, we’ll need about an inch of rain each week. This is necessary to make up for the water that dries up from the ground. It’s also for the water that people use. To get ahead, we would need at least 1.25 inches a week.
I was an expert for NJ.com’s article about how stormy February 2025 has been in the first half of the month. Fellow Certified Digital Meteorologist Steve DiMartino was included as well. Click here for the full article!
A little snow this past Sunday kicked off a week’s worth of well-below-average temperatures, which we will only get out of this Sunday.
A coastal storm impacted the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. This wasn’t a strong coastal storm. There was no coastal flooding, and the winds weren’t all that strong.
However, it was still a low-pressure system that moved from the Deep South around Virginia Beach, and then just off the Nantucket coast.
Snowfall totals at the South Jersey Shore were light. Just 0.3 inches fell in Somers Point, and a trace was reported in Ocean City.
It snowed for several hours Sunday. However, temperatures were above freezing most of the time, which meant much of that snow melted on contact with the ground instead of accumulating.
Other parts of the state picked up more snow. Western Atlantic County saw 1 to 2 inches, and Northern Ocean County saw about that as well with northwest New Jersey seeing 4 to 8 inches.
I mentioned in my forecast that what happens after the storm would be more impactful than what happens during it, and surely came true.
Temperatures crashed into the 20s, turning wet pavements and sidewalks into sheets of ice. That ice still hasn’t melted in spots as temperatures stayed below freezing Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. At the time of this writing, it looks like temperatures were not going to go above freezing until Friday inland, perhaps just peaking at 33 degrees in the beach towns Thursday.
Either way, it’s been frigid. Atlantic City International Airport had a high temperature of 29 degrees Monday. On Tuesday, both ACY Airport and Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina reached just 20 degrees for the high.
Tuesday was the coldest day since Dec. 24, 2022. It was 21-23 degrees below average – as cold as a typical Jan. 21 day in Caribou, Maine, in the far northern reaches of our northernmost state.
Morning lows were very cold as well. However, without a snowpack to accelerate the cooling at night, it hasn’t been exceptional. Lows generally remained 7-12 degrees inland, and 10-15 degrees at the shore.
This polar plunge was the result of the polar vortex. About two weeks ago, the polar vortex in the stratosphere, which is 8 to 31 miles above the surface, entered the Northeast, causing the jet stream in the troposphere, which is about 20,000 to 30,000 feet high, to become very wavy, moving in a more south-to-north fashion. The jet stream is the river of air that separates two air masses. In this case, it was mild air to the south and true polar air to the north.
Once Sunday’s storm passed, that jet stream dipped down into the Gulf Coast. Since we’re far north of that, we had a near uninterrupted path to the polar air.
Now as cold as it’s been, we didn’t break any cold temperature records. At the Atlantic City Marina, we needed to have highs in the 10s, with lows in the lower single digits. At Atlantic City International Airport, the lows needed to be below zero.
Getting below zero is tough and getting tougher. The last time the airport was below zero was Jan. 7, 2018, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s been three years since we last set a minimum daily temperature record. However, we’ve set roughly two dozen maximum temperature records since.
The bitter cold will end this weekend. Temperatures will rise to seasonable levels Sunday, with highs in the 40s. It will feel like New Orleans compared to where we’ve been. However, maybe I’m speaking too soon, since that city just saw its biggest snowfall in recorded history on Tuesday.
Swapping the previous year’s calendar in December for the new one in January is a social construct. January is still climatological winter. The shortest day of the year, the winter solstice, was already in December and the coldest days are still ahead of us.
In fact, in the weather world, a “water year” runs October to September. The snow year goes from July to June. Planet Earth doesn’t care about whether it’s Dec. 31 or Jan. 1.
However, we can still pick out a few weather, climate and solar phenomena to mark your 2025 calendar for the Jersey Shore. Meteorologist Kyle David, a fellow Rutgers University graduate, and I produced this list. The list is month by month and separated between the immediate shore, using the Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City, and for mainland areas, using Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township.
Data is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or https://www.timeanddate.com/. Mainland weather and climate data traces back to Aug. 1943. For the shore, that data stretches back to December 1873.
Happy New Year and enjoy tracking the atmosphere and science throughout 2025!
