WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | The sunshine and comfortably mild temperatures continue for another day! Turns out, these cool mornings are making history as well for us at the shore. Enjoy the sunshine! Rounds of rain return Thursday night.
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Labor Day is over and now it’s time for Locals’ Summer! Happy back to school day, too. It’ll feel like school weather. It’s another cool morning leading to a warm day! A series of cold front will pass with a few rounds of showers. Let’s see how wet it’ll be. www.cupajoe.live
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Meteorologist Joe Martucci and NJ State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson shared the same August recap and wardrobe choice of a blue polo shirt. Turning to the weather, the two detail Hurricane Erin’s coastal devastation with record-high summer tides and erosion.
They noted cooler-than-average temperatures, a chilly month start and end, and severe drought conditions, with North Jersey under a drought for the first time in months. The Rutgers 2024 Climate Report highlights ongoing drought and future weather risks.
Recap the month of weather that was. It’s all Jersey, with two of Jersey’s best weather guys. New Jersey State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson as well as Meteorologist Joe Martucci, owner of Cup A Joe Weather and Drone take you through the temperatures, rain, snow, coastal flooding and much more every episode. New episodes come out around the beginning of every month.
Cup A Joe Website: www.cupajoe.live
NJ Climatologist’s Office: www.njclimate.org
Hurricane Erin glanced the Jersey Shore with an indirect blow, causing historic summertime flooding, dangerous surf and beach erosion. It marks the beginning of the peak of hurricane season, which promises to be active in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin.
How will the rest of hurricane season be?
It will probably be more active than usual, with a typical risk to the Jersey Shore.
Colorado State University updated its forecast for August. For the hurricane season as a whole, from June to November, they project that 2025 will have 16 named storms. Of those, eight of them are expected to become hurricanes and three of them major hurricanes – Category 3, 4 or 5 storms.
On average, there are 14 named storms – seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes each year. This year is a bit more active than usual. As of Aug. 23, we’ve already had some storms in the Atlantic, so the forecast predicts 11 more named storms – seven hurricanes and two major hurricanes to come. There’s still a lot of energy left in the hurricane season and we hope it doesn’t hit New Jersey.
Colorado State University estimates the chances of a storm coming within 50 miles of New Jersey from Aug. 5 to Nov. 30 as follows:
25% chance of a named storm
8% chance of a hurricane
1% chance of a major hurricane
All of that is about the average for the state. While Hurricane Erin impacted the shore, the storm’s center was 450 miles away from New Jersey at its closest, so that didn’t count. The peak of hurricane season is here.
On average, the most active stretch of hurricane season is from mid-August to mid-October, peaking around Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. Not only are there the most storms during this time, but they’re typically the most intense. That’s due to the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) having their widest range of water temperatures: 80 degrees.
Furthermore, Cabo Verde (or Cape Verde) storms are more likely during this time. Like Hurricane Erin, these are the far traveling storms that roll off the West Coast of Africa and travel across the ocean, giving it ample time to strengthen and organize.
Key factors for the
rest of hurricane season
Colorado State University points to a few ingredients they’re paying attention to through November.
The first one is sea surface temperatures. The central and eastern parts of the Atlantic Ocean were well above average in July. However, they’ve trended toward seasonable recently.
The highest hurricane activity happens when the tropical Atlantic Ocean is more above average than the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. In other words, if the tropical Atlantic Ocean is 2 degrees above average, and the rest is 1 degree above average, that usually means more tropical cyclones. That’s not the case now given that Hurricane Erin cooled the water as it passed through the tropics, but this will be studied.
Also, hurricanes can be affected by something called El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions (sometimes called “La Nada” for fun). This year, we’re close to neutral or La Niña, which means a slightly more active hurricane season.
The last significant factor is the high amount of wind shear in the Caribbean Sea. Wind shear weakens hurricanes during hurricane season by disrupting their spinning structure, similar to how a strong gust might disrupt a spinning top, making it harder for the storm to stay strong or grow.
If that remains, the hurricanes will be torn apart and weaken if they try to move from Africa into the Caribbean Sea and then northwest into Mexico, Cuba or the United States Gulf Coast.
Wind shear in the Caribbean Sea doesn’t impact New Jersey much, though.
Key messages for N.J.
Hurricane Erin was a good reminder of what tropical systems can do to the coastline. Always listen to public safety officials during a weather emergency. They know how to keep you safe.
If they tell you to leave your area, do it right away. Closing beaches and businesses to evacuate is important, and only happens when it’s really dangerous. They ask you to leave because staying could be very risky.
Now is a good time to make your “Go Bag.” If you attended the Downbeach Community Meeting in Ventnor on Aug. 6, officials from Ventnor, Margate and Longport talked about this. Also, follow what we in the weather community are saying. Hurricanes.gov is the official resource for storm information.
If you follow me on my website or social media that’s great and I love that. However, any degreed meteorologist is trained to deal with these situations.
Look for those designated with a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist or Certified Digital Meteorologist seal from the American Meteorological Society for extra credibility.
If you’re a summer resident or visitor to the Jersey Shore, it’s possible you’ve never experienced tidal flooding like this in your lifetime.
Margate was the most significant location for flooding on the entire shore. A transformer fire, electrical fire, six vehicle rescues, evacuations out of Sofia’s and Tomatoes, and a gas leak occurred, according to the Margate Fire Department. Water rescues occurred on the Black and White Horse pikes between Atlantic City and the Mainland.
Looking at tide gauges for June, July and August, Hurricane Erin brought the highest storm surge on record to the following locations:
Absecon, Atlantic City (Inside Thorofare), Sea Isle City, Avalon, Stone Harbor, Cape May (bayside) according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
If you weren’t in these locations, then it was the highest summertime flooding since Tropical Storm Irene impacted north up the Jersey Shore in August 2011.
The National Weather Service classifies flooding into three categories: minor, moderate and major. This was at the very high end of moderate.
Moderate flood stage is when traveling around our coast is downright difficult. I was in Sea Bright, Monmouth County on Thursday night, reporting on the storm. Route 36, the main road in town, was washed out going south, causing us to exit the island north, near Sandy Hook instead. It was also bringing water into unraised homes and businesses.
While moderate floods happen during the year, it’s almost always during nor’easter season, October to April, when fewer of us are at the shore. If you are here, it’s likely you’re not going out as much.
Still, even this tide was unusually high, ranked among the top 10 highest tides of any month on record in Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland counties.
THURSDAY’S FORECAST | Cool. Comfy. Those are the two ways to describe the weather this week so far, and most of the next 7-days, too. One round of rain is in the forecast for Labor Day Weekend and it’s not even much. Let’s talk!
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Rutgers football is back and it feels so good, especially when it’s Thursday, R night! Planet Earth will give us winning weather. Stay until the end to see what historical weather tells us about dry week 1 home games with these temperatures, too. You’re going to love our new weather scenario generator.
Located just 1/3rd of a mile from SHI Stadium, the St. George Greek Orthodox Church is THE place to park and tailgate for Rutgers football games! Lots of space, clean bathroom and excellent service. Reserve your space at www.rutgersparking.com.
WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | Just in time for Pumpkin Spiced Lattes to come out, our *driest* air of summer comes today, feeling more like Autumn than the waning days of August. Watch and tune in!
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Today is the first of three bad days for the beaches. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the waters. Meanwhile, on land, we have a variety of surf and coastal flooding alerts out to keep us prepared. Let’s talk about what’s ahead, and the weekend.
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I was on the phone with a Beach Patrol Captain Monday morning, talking about what Hurricane Erin would mean for the coastline.
His answer: We get these kinds of storms during the winter, but no one is in the water to experience the fury of the ocean.
Let me get this off the top. Swimming or boating in the ocean will be downright dangerous through Saturday and possibly into Sunday. Two people died in the surf the week of Aug. 11, one in Seaside Heights and one in Belmar. The waves weren’t even that rough. Using a personal watercraft (Jet Ski or Wave Runner) in the inlets will be dangerous, too.
Of less danger but still important, you’ll need to set up your beach chairs and towels closer to the dunes than usual. It’s possible salt water even reaches the dunes at high tides. Coastal flooding will be around each evening through Saturday.
This week’s indirect blow from Hurricane Erin is a good reminder of what the Jersey Shore experiences when the joy of summer here fades away, when the days turn gray and storm season eats at the sand. If you’re not a full-time resident in a beach town, this is what we experience in December or February, when the crowds are thin.
Hurricane Erin became a major hurricane, a category three, four or five hurricane, on Saturday, Aug. 16 with the 5 a.m. National Hurricane Center update.
Erin was the first Cabo Verde hurricane of the year. Cabo Verde storms are the long track cyclones that originate off the West Coast of Africa, near the Cabo Verde Island. They then move west along the trade winds for days. From there, it either goes into the Caribbean Sea or Gulf. Alternatively, they curl northwest, north than northeast, parallel to the East Coast of the United States (major exception: Superstorm Sandy in 2012).
Erin’s will pass between Bermuda and North Carolina on Thursday, forecast by the National Hurricane Center to remain a major hurricane. It then only slowly weakens as it moves northeast, moving faster when it does so.
By the time it reaches the latitude of the Jersey Shore (roughly 39 to 40 degrees north latitude), it’ll be between 500 and 700 miles to our east. However, the storm will be stronger than usual for our latitude.
There are four reasons why Hurricane Erin will bring the most hazardous waters to New Jersey in years.
1) We won’t see rain. You can’t see the storm.
2) It’ll be breezy through Friday, and windy Thursday. However, it won’t cause wind damage or power outages. If you’re not looking at the ocean, it doesn’t look dangerous out.
3) This week is busier than usual for the coastal communities. Most summer camps are over, and most schools aren’t in session. The Beach Patrol Captain I spoke with said that.
4) The ocean is warm and enticing to go into. It continues to be one of the warmest, if not warmest on record for the Memorial Day to Labor Day period, according to Meteorologist Jim Eberwine of Absecon (also my weather-dad). Water temperatures have been well into the 70s.
For the boaters
The ocean, a few hundred feet offshore, will experience sea heights at or over seven feet until Saturday. It’ll peak on Thursday, with up to 13-foot seas.
A small craft advisory is in effect until Friday evening by the National Weather Service. It’s possible it will extend to Saturday.
The bays will be better but since smaller boats are in the bay, it will be hazardous, too. Seas will be three to five feet. For reference, the bay is typically one to two feet. There will be a big chop on the water, particularly late in the week.
For the surfers and swimmers
Surf heights will be at or over 5 feet until Saturday. Typically, the surf heights are less than three feet.
Not only will the waves be big, but they’ll have power to them. The wave period, which is the time it takes for two waves to pass one point, will be over 10 seconds through Saturday. It’ll peak for over 15 seconds on Thursday. The longer the wave period, the more ability it has to carry more water, making it more powerful. This also brings a very high risk for rip currents.
For reference, there will usually be a high risk of rip currents at nine seconds and a moderate risk after seven.
Surfers love these big waves. However, with winds in nearly the same direction as the southeast swell through Friday morning, these won’t give the clean waves surfers craving. Again, it’s dangerous and I don’t recommend anyone going in the water.
Your beach may show a red flag for an oceanic “high hazard”. It may also show a double red flag. That means the water is closed for public use.
“It’s going to look like a washer machine out there,” Eric Hoeflich, of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, which covers the Jersey Shore, texted me. That’s true. Hurricane Lee in 2023 did have a white, sudsy look to the waves.
Again, the bay beaches will be the better place to get your sea water fix in.
For all people in a town that borders a bay
Coastal flooding will continue to extend until Saturday. This will mainly be during the evening high tides (find your flood forecast here). For two to three hours, expect up to six inches of salt water on low-lying bayside roads. This is the typical, or nuisance flooding, we see several dozen times a year. However, this is mainly from October to April, when some of you may be away from the Jersey Shore.
Be aware of Thursday evening’s high tide. Expect four to six hours of flooding here. Furthermore, prepare for moderate flood stage. This is when unraised buildings and homes begin to take on water. Up to ten inches of salt water are on low-lying roads and even roads that don’t typically flood do. In short, moving around the bayside towns is challenging for a stretch.
Still, Enjoy the Jersey Shore
The boardwalks will still be good. Ride the rides, eat the saltwater taffy, have a hurricane at the bar.
Daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s. So, it’ll still be comfortable for a cookout, basketball or long runs.
In short, as long as you stay out of the water, there will be plenty of ways to enjoy this summer week.