Tag: Jersey Shore

  • When is it really beach weather season in NJ?

    When is it really beach weather season in NJ?

    This article originally appeared in Shore Local News on May 22.

    We shivered through our coldest winter in 10 years, held our hats during the windiest winter in 15 years, and lived the rollercoaster temperature ride of spring. Now Memorial Day weekend is here. It’s the unofficial start of summer.

    There’s an old saying for our beach season weekend holidays. It’s some variation of:

    Memorial Day we shiver.

    Fourth of July we sweat.

    Labor Day we shine.

    We all want a fun Memorial Day weekend. It helps our stores make money when visitors and part-time homeowners come back. It’s great for people who want to return to their favorite slice of sand for a few months, and it’s an awesome place for our kids and grandkids to have a good time, and our families to make memories.

    But Memorial Day is in late May, during spring. That means the weather can be unpredictable and change a lot.

    Looking at my Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card, the holiday weekend earned an average grade of C-plus between 2019 and 2024. That being said, the past three years all earned at least a B.

    Using climate as our barometer (no weather pun intended), steady beach or boating weather begins in mid-June and ends after the Labor Day holiday, in mid-September. I use criteria from my Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card as a guide, with temperatures at or above 75 degrees, winds under 15 mph and a lower risk of widespread rain makers as the main benchmarks.

    Temperatures

    Per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), at Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City, the average high temperature hits 75 degrees on June 14. It then peaks at 81 degrees from July 12 to July 27, then it falls, dipping under 75 degrees for the first time on Sept. 15.

    For about three months, it’s usually warm enough to wear a bathing suit and stay outside all day. From July 4 to around Aug. 20, beach weather is nearly guaranteed. There’s an 80% chance the temperature will be 75 degrees or higher, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

    I checked the weather in Long Branch, Monmouth County, where the monitoring station is about a mile from the ocean. There, the average high temperature is 75 degrees or more from June 6 to Sept. 21. It’s nearly the same as Atlantic City.

    Winds

    It’s proven that winds weaken in the summer.Our least windy time of year is July through September, which fits in fairly well with the temperatures. We look to Atlantic City International Airport for this data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

    May: 9.5 mph

    June: 8.6 mph

    July: 7.9 mph

    August: 7.5 mph

    September: 8.0 mph

    October: 8.5 mph

    As the Earth’s axis tilts and the Northern Hemisphere warms, wind-making systems, including nor’easters and powerful cold fronts, stop passing here around mid-June. This lasts through about mid-October.

    Of course there are tropical storms and hurricanes that bring plenty of wind. While we always need to prepare, our likelihood of experiencing one is fairly low. This year, Colorado State University gives New Jersey a 29% chance of a tropical storm, and a 9% chance of a hurricane impacting our coast.

    Steady rain

    From mid-June to mid-October, widespread rain makers are hard to come by here in New Jersey. Just like the winds, the nor’easters and powerful cold fronts, the weather systems that would bring widespread rain don’t impact us this time of year.

    However, this time of year is when thunderstorms happen a lot. They’re most common from June 15 to Aug. 15, based on info from Atlantic City International Airport. A thunderstorm might change your beach plans for a few hours, but the all-day rainy days we see in spring are pretty rare.

    Shifting climate

    Interestingly, the warmest 91-day period of the year has shifted to slightly earlier over the decades. In Atlantic City, here’s the shift, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

    1900: June 17 to Sept. 16

    1980: June 15 to Sept. 14

    2020: June 14 to Sept. 13

    The average temperature during climatological summer – June through August – increased by 0.65 degrees between 2010 and 2020 in southeastern New Jersey, according to ClimateCentral. Since 1904, the average summer temperature has increased from 71.0 to 74.0 degrees, per NOAA.

    So where can you find true beach weather on Memorial Day?

    Long-term weather averages say that once you go south to Virginia Beach, Va., average high temperatures reach at or above 75 degrees, according to NOAA. That being said, the beaches are better in Jersey, from what I hear.

    Have a great Memorial Day weekend everyone, happy unofficial start to summer and let’s remember all of our fallen United States military members. It’s why we have Memorial Day in the first place.

    Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.

  • Jones Road Fire shows how fragile NJ’s Pine Barrens are

    Jones Road Fire shows how fragile NJ’s Pine Barrens are

    The article initially appeared in Shore Local Magazine on May 1. Find it here.

    By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

    The Jones Road Fire, which was first spotted at 9:45 a.m. on April 22, was New Jersey’s largest wildfire in 18 years, swallowing up 23 square miles in Ocean County, or a little over 15,000 acres.

    While drought conditions have improved across the area, the fire is a stark reminder that we are in the midst of a wildfire season that has big potential to be severe, if we are not careful.

    Jones Road Wildfire update from 4/24, near the peak of the fire (New Jersey Forest Fire Service)

    The Pine Barrens is such a unique landscape that maybe we take it for granted. You learn about it in elementary school, and you might even be told about the Jersey Devil (whose home is in Galloway, according to legend).

    In Meteorology School at Rutgers University, you learn the sandy soil makes it cool off quickly at night. Its composition makes it perfect for growing cranberries and blueberries. The forest is so dense, that satellite imagery shows this as a noticeably darker area than the rest of the state.

    All that dense forest means one fire can spread quickly. Any forest that has dry ground with low humidity and a gusty wind can increase the size of the blaze. However, the New Jersey Pine Barrens, specifically, have a few factors that make this area uniquely prone to to fine.

    Pitch pine

    Pitch pine, which the region gets its Pine Barrens name from, is highly flammable. The needles and bark ignite easily.

    Quickly drying soil

    The sandy soil of the Pinelands, known as sugar soil to the locals, drains water quickly. Think of sand on the beach. You pour a bucket of water on it and a few minutes later, that wet spot pretty much dries out.

    The same is true in the Pinelands. The ground dries out faster than most forests. The old adage that it will rain overnight, and you’ll have wildfire by noon is based on this truth. This year’s drought only amplifies that.

    Topography and wind

    The Pine Barrens in New Jersey are flat, like a big, open field. The trees there aren’t very tall, and their tops (called the canopy) have lots of gaps. This makes fires spread really fast.

    Because the trees are shorter, wind from above can blow down to the ground where the fire is, without getting blocked like in other forests with taller trees.

    Forest next to people

    Map of New Jersey, with the Pinelands National Reserve in the green outline. (State of New Jersey)

    The Garden State Parkway is like a big boundary line in New Jersey. It separates the wild, state-protected Pinelands Area to the west from towns and cities to the east.

    In Ocean County, starting at Toms River and going south, the west side of the Parkway is the Pinelands, while the east side has homes, stores, and businesses.

    The Jones Road Fire happened in Ocean County. In Atlantic County, the Parkway separates the Pinelands from developed areas until about Mays Landing. In Cape May County, the Pinelands National Reserve follows the Parkway from Marmora down to around Swainton and Goshen.

    You don’t have to go far from the Pinelands to find busy places! In Ocean County, right across the Parkway, there are huge neighborhoods with lots of houses. In Lacey Township and Ocean Township, where the Jones Road Fire burned, over 35,000 people live with homes, shops, and more, just a short distance from the forest.

    Plus, you have to consider the Garden State Parkway running through there. In 2018, 389 million toll transactions took place on the road, according to NJ.com. When the Parkway closes, it backs up traffic and slows the local economy.

    Last Tuesday, I had to go north, through the Jones Road Fire on the Parkway. I was diverted onto County Road 539 in Ocean County.

    Thankfully, the traffic was moving north. However, going south on that one lane it was bumper-to-bumper traffic for miles. It’s an issue which could happen in the South Jersey shore area, too.

    This drought plays a role

    As of April 25, 662 wildfires have occurred in New Jersey this year – 16,572 acres burned, the vast majority of that the Jones Road Fire.

    Last year through by April 25, about half as many wildfires occurred, burning just 315 acres.

    The difference is drought. When the Jones Road Fire began, that area was in a transitionary state between drought and no drought, known as abnormally dry conditions, according to the United States Drought Monitor.

    All of Atlantic and nearly all of Cape May counties were officially in drought. Plus, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection put forth a drought warning for the state in November.

    Drought means, among other things, the ground is dry, and the water table is lower. This only enhanced the spread of wildfire.

    There has been no wetter-than-average month in 2025. Statewide, it was the third driest January on record, according to the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist (0.92 inch average).

    February was below average, too. March then bucked the trend, with nearly average precipitation. April should come in around the same (not known at the time of writing).

    Last year was nearly the opposite. It was the wettest start of the year, on record, through April 25, at Atlantic City International Airport, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Located on the edge of the Pine Barrens, it’s a good indicator for the South Jersey Pinelands.

    Precipitation accumulated for Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township from January 1 to April 25, 2024. Last year was the wettest start to the year, on record, up to April 25.

    In Hammonton, farther into the Pine Barrens, it was the sixth wettest. Records have been kept fairly regularly since 1893.

    As long as drought continues, and I believe it will in Atlantic and Cape May counties into the summer, the potential for another Jones Road Fire is higher than usual.

    You can prevent wildfires

    About 85% of wildfires in the United States are caused by humans, according to the United States Forest Service. Fire is a natural and needed part of our ecosystem. However, humans disrupt Mother Nature’s rhythm, which would typically happen from lightning strikes.

    No published research has been done in New Jersey, but in California, researchers found that human-sparked wildfires spread more than twice as fast as lightning-induced burns, according to the University of California-Irvine.

    What Smokey Bear first said in 1944 holds true in 2025, “Only you can prevent forest fires.”

  • Is it warm enough to plant at the Jersey Shore this April?

    Is it warm enough to plant at the Jersey Shore this April?

    Find the original article on Shore Local News here!

    By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

    The old adage goes that in New Jersey, once you get to Mother’s Day you can start planting your gardens. That holds merit. Mother’s Day in the United States is celebrated between May 8 and May 11 (May 11 this year), on the second Sunday in May.

    At Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, there’s an 11% chance that low temperatures will be at or below freezing on or after May 8, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Go to May 14, and that’s happened just twice in the 80-year history of weather records at the airport.

    Cross the bridges to the beaches and your risk of a freeze goes away completely. The latest freeze on record at Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City, is April 30. That was back in 1874, the first year of record keeping in the then-young city. Note that the northern Jersey Shore has had freezes as late as May 11. However, there’s only a 7% chance of a May freeze.

    You don’t need to rely on the old adage for your planting advice this season. Your friendly, neighborhood, Shore Local meteorologist can help you with the question of whether or not it’s time to plant this spring.

    Low temperatures on April 18, 2025, the last inland freeze of the spring, so far. (Image via the National Weather Service)

    When was our final freeze of the season?

    Was April 18 the last freeze in the inland parts of the Jersey Shore in the 2025 season? Woodbine (Cape May County), Tuckahoe (Cape May County), as well as parts of Ocean and Monmouth counties dipped below 32 degrees. While Atlantic County did not report a freeze, there was localized patchy frost, which harms young plants as well. At the immediate coast, the last widespread freeze was back on April 9.

    It’s differences like this that we take for granted as residents of the Jersey Shore. Most places in the United States don’t have these kinds of microclimates.

    What is the forecast for the rest of April?

    It’s much more likely that we will go the rest of the month without a killing freeze. The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, was forecasting “likely” above average temperatures for April 26 to May 2 in their April 18 update. With average low temperatures in the mid-40s inland, and near 50 at the coast, you have a better chance of putting your ceiling fan on at night than a killing freeze. I can’t completely rule out frost in the rural Pine Barrens, but this is unlikely.

    How about May?

    The shore will be frost and freeze free. By May 1, we would need a historic polar plunge of cold air. Remember, too, that Atlantic City has never had a freeze past April 30.

    For the inland part of the shore counties, 16% of Mays had a low temperature below 32 degrees. The most recent was May 11, 2010.

    The general weather pattern for the Northeast in the first half of May is a thicker-than-usual atmosphere overhead. The thicker the atmosphere, the more potential for warmer air in the ground.

    Of course, the cold ocean can kick in a chilly daytime sea breeze. However, sea breezes also moderate the overnight low temperature to the warmer side. So the risk of a freeze is low.

    By the second half of May, freezes or frosts in this part of the state are unheard of. After May 15, you’d need a historic cold plunge to get one, and I just don’t see that happening.

    You can plant with confidence now

    Hidden Creek Farm in Stow Creek, Cumberland County, NJ

    If you’re at the beaches, you can start planting if you haven’t already. It’s not unusual to begin planting at this time.

    For inland locations, like Somers Point or Egg Harbor Township, I say go for it and let the fruits and vegetables grow. Farmers planted their asparagus and spinach weeks ago, and they’ll start harvesting in early May.

    When I was growing up in Union County, we used to go to my Nonna’s (grandma in Italian) house to plant corn, plenty of tomatoes and carrots. It was one of my favorite days of the year. Each year, they would let my sister and me plant a fruit or vegetable of our choice. We tried growing watermelons with little success, and sunflowers with better success.

    The plot was about 10 feet by 10 feet, but it felt like a jungle as a kid during the late summer and autumn, with stalks taller than me all around.

    She is still with us, but we decommissioned the garden years ago. However, the memories last forever. I hope you have some of the same this season.

    Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.

  • Powerful new technology shows NJ flood risk through 2100; here’s how

    Powerful new technology shows NJ flood risk through 2100; here’s how

    By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

    View the original article on Shore Local News on April 17 here.

    You may have seen a number of articles come out in the first week of April with headlines like:

    “Rising Sea Levels Will Threaten 323K+ In NJ By 2050, New Study Says: See The Map”

    “Severe coastal flooding could threaten Wildwood, Ocean City, and A.C. by 2050, report says”

    “New Study Projects Climate-Driven Flooding for Thousands of New Jersey Homes”

    What do they actually mean? Why such a flurry of articles from reputable news sources? They sound kind of scary.

    They all come from the release of Climate Central’s Coastal Risk Finder tool on March 31. Climate Central is a nonprofit organization based in Princeton, Mercer County, whose mission is to “address climate science, sea level rise, extreme weather and energy topics.”

    I was fortunate enough to be asked by Climate Central to be a panelist for the public release of the product that Monday. More than 120 journalists and media meteorologists attended the virtual meeting to learn about the tool which forecasts future flooding and its socioeconomic impacts.

    National Flood Insurance Program Policies In Force.

    As of March, there are 200,636 flood insurance policies in force by the National Flood Insurance Program in New Jersey. That’s the fourth highest of the 50 states, ranking just above South Carolina. Furthermore, those policies cover over $50 billion worth of New Jersey property.

    Below is a summary of what the Coastal Risk Finder shows for the present and future of the Jersey Shore, as well as how to use the tool. All of the data is based on an intermediate sea level rise scenario. This scenario lines up best with the options presented by Climate Central, in comparison with what has happened historically in Atlantic City, our primary Jersey Shore tidal location.

    Interagency data from 2022 is the source for sea level rise projections used. Population is based on 2020 levels. To get the most out of the new tool, be sure to use a desktop or laptop computer.

    Not much change in flooding impacts by 2030

    According to the risk finder, 7.9% of people in Cape May County, and 1.9% of people in Atlantic City are at risk of water inundation in their homes at least once in 2030. That’s roughly what it is now. In other words, a flood 2.7 to 2.8 feet above mean higher high water (MHHW) floods the area at least once a year. MHHW is the average height of the two high tides seen per day.

    By 2050, those impacts double in size

    By 2050, according to the risk finder, 14% of people in Cape May County, and 4.8% people in Atlantic County are at risk from either sea level rise or a flood that happens once a year, on average.

    This indicates a flood 3.2 to 3.4 feet above mean higher high water in Ocean City, which would involve most areas bayward of West Avenue, from Second Street to 18th Street. Compare that to 2030, where only areas bayward of West Avenue, from Third Street to Eighth Street, would be underwater.

    Places that would flood once a year.

    Our kids and grandkids could be at serious risk

    Lastly, we’ll look at 2100. While most of us probably won’t be alive (I would be 109 then), our kids and especially grandkids would be around. That projects a vastly higher number.

    According to the risk finder, 35% of people in Cape May County, and 16% in Atlantic County would flood at least once a year. When considering just the shore towns, that number jumps to at least 65% of Ocean City and the Downbeach towns would flood during a flood that’s 5.2 to 6.1 feet above MHHW.

    Using Ocean City again, nearly everywhere bayward of Central Avenue would experience floodwater at least once a year. That’s nearly all of the island. Most of the Ocean City Municipal Airport would be included in that, too.

    What else to consider

    Your town’s emergency managers, elected officials and administrators take pride in protecting your property from floodwaters. The New Jersey Coastal Coalition, for which I do work, brings communities up and down the Jersey Shore together to share common sense flooding solutions. The result has been a reduction in your flood insurance premiums.

    Ocean City is eligible for a 30% rate reduction this year. Longport, Linwood, Margate and Ventnor have all earned 25% off. Somers Point has earned 20% off.

    All of this is through the Federal Emergency Management Association’s Community Rating System (CRS) program. Through a combination of public information, mapping, regulations, flood damage reduction, as well as warning and response programs, your communities earn points toward rate reduction. For example, Avalon saved residents $1.6 million in 2020, and each year going forward, by going up a class rating.

    The data and projections shown on the Coastal Risk Finder do not take into account future actions your town will take to increase their CRS score. It also doesn’t consider other actions being considered by towns and the state such the NJ Resilient Environments and Landscapes program.

    How to navigate the Coastal Risk Finder

    First go to www.climatecentral.org. Then go to Tools and select “Coastal Risk Finder” from the dropdown.

    On the left-hand side, you’ll be able to select your town, county or state. You can then select your scenario. You can view the risk by year, good for viewing what sea level rise projections will bring. Or you can view the risk by water level, which you could use to see how another Superstorm Sandy (search for 4 or 5 feet) would flood somewhere now.

    If you select the risk by year, you then go to additional settings to find your scenario.

    For purposes of this article, I used the sea level rise + annual flood under “projection type.” Then, for “sea level protection source” I used U.S. Interagency 2022.” Then I clicked on the “intermediate” sea level scenario.

    Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.

  • April Snow at the Jersey Shore: How often does it happen?

    April Snow at the Jersey Shore: How often does it happen?

    By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

    This article appeared in the April 3rd edition of Shore Local Magazine, which you can find here!

    April showers bring May flowers, as the saying goes. But what about April snow showers? Some April snow is common at the Jersey Shore, but don’t expect the plows to pass by the blooming cherry trees.

    Snow is tough to love, especially the older you are. I visited a homeschool group at Lakewood Chapel in Mays Landing on March 26. When I asked who liked snow, most of the children raised their hands, with a few parents agreeing. But most of the parents didn’t like the snow.

    With the arrival of spring, this story plays out often for me, too. April snow especially has a face only Mother Nature could love. (Let me know how you feel about April snow on my social media pages).

    Personally, I love snow until St. Patrick’s Day. Then I’m done with it. However, I could make an exception for record-breaking April snow.

    How often does the Jersey Shore have snow in April?

    For inland parts of the shore counties, 15% of Aprils have had measurable snow, at least 0.1 inches of snow or greater. The most recent time this happened at Atlantic City International Airport was on April 9, 2016. Totals that day, reported via CoCoRaHS, were downright weird.

    Snow on April 9, 2016 up the coast in Monmouth County (Via Justin Godynick)

    First, any measurable snow in April is uncommon. But this was a South Jersey snow special. Ocean City reported 3.2 inches of snow. Estell Manor saw up to 2.9 inches of snow, according to the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist. Central and northern parts of the state barely had accumulation, even on grass.

    Snowfall totals from the April 9, 2016 Snow (Via the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network)

    The Sen. Frank S. Farley Marina in Atlantic City hasn’t kept snow records since 1956. However, looking at the short term, current data in Margate suggests that measurable April snow in the beach towns has a 5-10% chance of occurring in a given year. Longer-term data in Lower Township also supports this probability. For reference, the northern part of the Jersey Shore jumps up to around 20%.

    This all being said, April flurries are common. You can go for a few years in a row with a few festive flakes floating in the spring sky.

    Has it snowed enough to be plowable?

    For the purposes of this question, we’ll assume that 2 inches of snow is plowable.

    Since snow records at Atlantic City Airport began in 1945, there have been only six April days with at least 2 inches of snow or more. In Margate, there has only been one time since records started in 2000 when this has occurred.

    Even in a cooler climate period, the Sen. Frank S. Farley Marina in Atlantic City only had three such days during their 1884-1956 snow record-keeping period. All records come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In other words there has, and continues to be a less than 1% chance the snowplows will come around in any given April at the shore.

    What year produced the most April snow?

    Since measurable April snow is uncommon, and plowable snow is rare, the Aprils with the most snow are largely driven by one day of snow.

    At ACY Airport, 1996 saw the most April snow – 5.7 inches of snow fell that year. However, all of that fell on April 9.

    Margate’s highest April snow year was 2016 with 2.0 inches. Again, April 9 was the day when all of that fell at once. Another way to look at it is the April with the most days of accumulating snow.

    ACY Airport saw two days of measurable snow in April 1956, 1959 and 1983. Lower Township had two days back in 1907. Meanwhile, Margate only had snow accumulate in April once – in 2016.

    Biggest April snows

    Here’s a look at the three biggest April snow totals up and down the Jersey Shore.

    If you’ve lived in the shore counties your whole life and are over the age of 14, you should remember the 2016 snow.

    May snow?

    The Jersey Shore never had measurable snow in May during its period of record. Non-accumulating flurries are uncommon, but not rare. I remember when flurries flew on Mother’s Day weekend back in 2020.

    Hurricane season forecasts

    On the completely opposite side of the weather spectrum, the first hurricane season forecasts will come out this month.

    It kicks off on April 3 when Colorado State University releases its outlook for the season. Despite the state being landlocked, it was home to William Gray, widely considered the pioneer of this specialized weather field.

    The Weather Channel typically releases its hurricane forecast during the first half of April. So, be on the lookout for that.

    Then, the National Hurricane Center will release its forecast in late May. The Hurricane Center manages all tropical watches, warnings and storm-specific forecasts in the United States.

    As we go deeper into spring, stay tuned for a few hurricane-related articles here.

  • NJ’s drought improves but path to drought-free will get tougher

    NJ’s drought improves but path to drought-free will get tougher

    By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

    This article ran in Shore Local Magazine on March 27th. The original article had data through March 21 (read here). However, this version is updated to the 27th.

    Mother Nature has made up for lost time, bringing plentiful rain to the state since March 5. That’s led to three consecutive weeks of improved drought status, according to the United States Drought Monitor.

    The improved status is clearly visible in the latest update (dated March 20) from the United States Drought Monitor.

    From New Year’s Day through March 4, 3.81 inches of rain fell at Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township. The report came from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. From March 5 until March 21, 5.55 inches of precipitation fell.

    The Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City saw a similar increase, recording 5.21 inches of precipitation March 5-21. Before that, it was 3.44 inches since the year began.

    It’s not just Atlantic County. Longtime weather reporting stations in Long Branch (Monmouth County), Trenton (Mercer County), and Philadelphia all saw as much or more precipitation since March 5. This is compared to the previous 64 days of the year.

    The weather pattern favors more storminess through the first week of April. So the shore should continue to see steady or improved drought status. However, improvement for the rest of the spring is considered unlikely. We will say more about that in the moment.

    On March 20 the South Jersey shoreline, from Stafford Township and Long Beach Island on south, improved from extreme drought. This was a level three of four drought. It improved to a severe drought, which is a level two of four. That’s our lowest level since Nov. 5, 2024.

    Inland Atlantic County (west of the Garden State Parkway), was still in extreme drought, though. Those areas join most of Cumberland County, and a small portion of inland Cape May County. This is the only area east of the Mississippi River in significant drought, as my friend and New Jersey State Climatologist Dave Robinson texted me last week.

    Still, New Jersey’s drought is improving. The 7% of the state in extreme drought is the lowest since Oct. 29, when the state was in the midst of its historic driest month on record.

    Drought status between December 10, the peak of the drought, and March 20, in New Jersey (United States Drought Monitor)

    The waning days of March, and the beginning of April bring plenty of opportunities to improve drought even more.

    The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, gives a lean toward wetter conditions around our area through April 4. That’s because the jet stream – the river of air about 30,000 feet high – will be over or around New Jersey during this time. Think of the jet stream as the storm track, with a colder air mass to the north and warmer air mass to the south. This is in part a reaction to the polar vortex entering the Northeast last week, which I talked about on social media if you follow me there.

    We’ll take what we can get. In March, 0.75 inches of rain a week generally keeps us from slipping further into drought. Over an inch, like we’ve seen for most of March, will improve drought’s status.

    However, once we go into April, water usage increases. The sun evaporates more water out of the ground as it goes higher in the sky. We’ll need an inch per week just to keep up, with over 1.25 inches a week to improve drought. These need to be region-wide soakers, too.

    Sure, 3 inches of rain in Linwood from pop-up thunderstorms is great. However, in order for the Kirkwood-Cohansey Aquifer, from which southeastern New Jersey gets its drinking water, and reservoirs for the rest of the state to recharge, we’ll need rain from a coastal storm or a large inland low-pressure system.

    As of March 25, levels in the Manasquan Reservoir were at about 84% of capacity, according to the New Jersey Water Supply Authority. Typically, 97% is the average for March, according to the agency.

    The underlying data still shows there’s work to be done. As of March 23, average stream flows over the past 90 days are still in the “extremely dry” category up and down the Jersey Shore. In the southern part of the shore, it’s been this way for 23-straight weeks.

    I took a deep dive into the Climate Prediction Center’s outlooks. They break it down into three-month periods.

    The way I read it is I should expect a more humid-than-usual summer. That will at least increase the probability of pop-up thunderstorms. That’s good news, but again, we’ll need widespread rainmakers, which are unlikely in our climate once we hit mid-June. Rain storms from tropical cyclones don’t make their way here until late July, usually.

    In a bit of good news, there is a small lean toward wetter weather than usual here. A remnant storm or two would do wonders for us. We failed to get any last fall, which led us into this drought anyway.

    In my opinion, the best case scenario is that drought doesn’t worsen over the next few months. Then we get a tropical cyclone or two to pull us back to normal.

    The worst-case scenario: The extreme drought (level three) expands back to the Jersey Shore. The state would seriously need to consider their first drought emergency since 2002, and the mandatory drought restrictions that come with it, later in the spring.

    The NJDEP issued a statewide drought warning last November which called for voluntary water restrictions.

  • We lived through the Jersey Shore’s windiest winter since 2010-2011

    We lived through the Jersey Shore’s windiest winter since 2010-2011

    By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

    This article appeared in Shore Local Magazine on March 20th. Read the story here, also!

    No, it wasn’t just you thinking the wind was howling this winter. This was the windiest winter since 2010-2011, and featured the second highest wind gust on record.

    At Atlantic City International Airport, the average sustained wind speed from December through February (climatological winter) was 9.7 mph, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. During the winter of 2010-2011, that number was 10.3 mph.

    It’s not just the airport. Toms River (8.1 mph) was the windiest since 2010-2011. Meanwhile, Lower Township, at Cape May County Airport, was the breeziest since the winter of 2017-2018 (9.0 mph), according to the Mesonet. The top wind gust all winter was 71 mph at Atlantic City International, which occurred Feb. 16. That was the second strongest gust during climatological winter since records began in 1944.

    The breezy weather lasted beyond climatological winter. Atlantic and Cape May counties had the most wind advisories. They either led or tied for the most issued by the National Weather Service this year up to March 14. (A wind advisory is issued when wind gusts are forecast to hit 46 to 57 mph, or steady winds will be 31 to 39 mph).

    The number of wind advisories issued by the National Weather Service for the coastal part of Cape May County (National Weather Service).
    The number of wind advisories issued by the National Weather Service for the coastal part of Atlantic County (National Weather Service).

    Wind speeds this past winter were more significant than in recent years. However, they were still within the normal range for the period of record. Similar to temperature trends, it was ultimately a seasonable winter for wind speeds.

    Since the 1970s, winds have gotten slower at Atlantic City International Airport, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. The winds we felt in the winter of ’24-’25 were calmer than what was normal before the 1980s. Back in the middle of the last century, winter winds usually blew faster than 11 mph. That’s about 20% stronger than the winds we have now.

    A wind speed graph at ACY Airport over time
    Average wind speed, by year, at Atlantic City International Airport (Iowa Environmental Mesonet)

    It’s not just ACY that has lighter winds these days. I checked two other airports with long records. At Monmouth Executive Airport in Wall Township, the winds have been slowing down little by little over the last few decades. But at Millville Municipal Airport, where they started keeping track just a few years after Atlantic City, the winds have dropped significantly since the late 1990s.

    In Millville, the sharp decline can be explained. In 1999, the weather equipment was moved from the eastern side of the airport to its current location on the western side, according to NOAA. There is an area of trees about 350 feet south of there. While they meet the standard practice of being at least 100 feet away from trees, this still likely weakens southerly winds. These winds encounter the anemometer equipment used to measure wind speeds.

    a map of Millville Airport
    The positions of the weather station at Millville Executive Airport. The 3 indicates it’s location up until 1999. It then moved west to its current location, marked by the number 1. (Google)

    At ACY Airport, there’s no clear year in the data that shows the weather equipment moved and caused lower wind speeds. The biggest drop seems to have been in 1978.

    The airport moved its equipment in 1968 and 1995, but the wind speeds didn’t really change much before or after those years. However, there was no location change then, according to NOAA. There was no major equipment change, either. I asked the National Weather Service for an explanation but could not find one. Monmouth Executive Airport’s weather station also doesn’t have any equipment or location explanation for the lower winds.

    There is research supporting the idea. Winds have been getting weaker in recent decades in the Northeast, away from the beach towns.

    “We show that surface wind speeds have declined by 5-15% over almost all continental areas in the northern mid-latitudes, and that strong winds have slowed faster than weak winds,” stated Robert Vautard, research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research in a 2010 research article. The article looked at the period from 1979 to 2008.

    Vautard argues that a combination of reforestation and urbanization has played a large role in this. To a lesser extent, a weaker jet stream contributed. This jet stream is a river of strong winds about 30,000 feet high that separates two air masses.

    Urbanization makes sense. Atlantic County has grown a lot – 56% more people since 1970, according to the United States Census. Monmouth County, where the executive airport is, grew by 39%.

    The forest idea works, too. Around the late 1970s, when the winds started slowing down, the Pinelands National Reserve was created. This stopped people from building there, so the forest got thicker. Thicker trees block the wind and slow it down. Atlantic City Airport isn’t in the Pinelands, but it’s close enough that it might matter.

    Even so, this winter was pretty windy. There were 11 days when the wind stayed above 15 mph this winter.

    The last time it was windier was back in 1991-1992.

    However, in the 1960s and 1970s winter would have been the calmest season of the whole year. Even in the 2000s, you would consider the season’s breeze average.

    Similar to this past winter’s temperatures, which were the coldest in 10 years, the wind was noteworthy, but in the grand scheme of things, similar to what we used to see. Mother Nature must have had nostalgia for winters past this season.

  • The coldest winter in 10 years just froze N.J.

    The coldest winter in 10 years just froze N.J.

    By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

    This story first appeared in Shore Local magazine on Mar. 6. Read it here!

    Climatological winter – December, January and February – is over, and the latest data shows that this was the coldest since 2014-2015 for the Jersey Shore.

    The average temperature was 34.8 degrees at Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, and 36.4 degrees at the Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City.

    What stood out the most to me was how long the cold lasted. December, January and February were all colder than normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The only exception was February at the airport, which was exactly average for the season. Note that average here means the 1991-2020 universally used time. We’ll talk more about that later.

    Monthly temperature departure from average

    Here’s the Monthly Temperature Departure from Average in degrees Fahrenheit, according to NOAA:

    December was -1.0 at the airport and -0.9 at the marina.

    January was -3.5 at the airport and -3.7 at the marina.

    February was 0.0 at the airport and -0.2 at the marina.

    It truly felt like a start-to-finish winter at the Jersey Shore. This has become less and less common over the decades.

    While all three months were at or colder than average, that conclusion is based off of the mean temperature from 1991-2020. Looking back at all of recorded history shows that this winter was more in line with an average one than a frigid one.

    Yes it was cold, but…

    Take Atlantic City International Airport. Out of the 82 winters on record, this winter ranked exactly at the halfway point between them all. Taking it a step further, the average temperature for the entire period is 35 degrees, just 0.2 degrees above this past winter’s temperature.

    Go to the beach and we have Atlantic City Marina, one of America’s premiere weather reporting stations. It has had nearly continuous record keeping since 1873 – one of the country’s longest established weather outposts. Plus, situated right at the marina, its data reflects the true impact of the water on the shore’s climate.

    This was in the colder half of the 150 winters on record, but not by much. It was the 68th coldest, putting it in the top 45%. The long-term average is 36.1 degrees, which is actually slightly colder than what we just experienced.

    Neither Atlantic City International Airport nor Atlantic City Marina set any new cold temperature records. The last time either place had record cold, for high or low temperatures, was in 2022, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

    The only new record was in Estell Manor, Atlantic County. On Feb. 19, the highest temperature of the day was just 30 degrees, the coldest ever for that date. Records there go back to 1966. While it’s not as well-known for climate data as the airport or marina, it still provides useful information.

    Overall, this winter wasn’t extremely cold when looking at all past records. But compared to recent years, it was colder than usual – the coldest since the winter of 2014-2015.

    Frozen waters

    Ice is visible well off the shore on the Beach Thorofare in Atlantic City during January, just off of West End Avenue. (Photo by Joe Martucci)

    The salty bays had some ice on them from late December to mid-February. In some places, the ice stretched far out into the water.

    Ice was especially extensive on Jan. 24. Most of the Delaware Bay had a total ice concentration of 90%, according to the United States National Ice Center. Even on the Atlantic Ocean side, there was some ice in Cape May County.

    The Delaware Bay shoreline, from roughly Del Haven, Middle Township, over to East Point Lighthouse was at least 90% iced over on Feb. 21, according to the United States National Ice Center. At least some ice covered nearly the entire Delaware Bayshore that day, too. That extended up the river to Philadelphia.

    The freshwater ponds were frozen over for a long while this winter. Pictures on social media of people playing pond hockey, skating or even ice sailing were seen up and down the Jersey Shore. Furthermore, the cold reversed the trend of plants and trees budding in mid to late February.

    Why was it so cold?

    The reason for the coldest winter in nearly a decade has to do with two factors: the polar vortex and the cold ocean.

    The polar vortex is a cold dome of low pressure in the stratosphere. It sits over the poles in its resting state. This winter, it stretched down into the northern United States numerous times. As of the end of the month, it occurred 10 times, according to Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in Massachusetts. For those keeping score at home, that’s a lot.

    When that happens the jet stream – the river of air about 30,000 feet high that separates colder and warmer air masses – will dive toward the equator about 10 to 14 days after the polar vortex moves in.

    The polar vortex and jet stream can stretch down to the equator anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere it wants. However, this winter, it was locked into the northern tier of the United States, as well as far eastern Russia.

    Typically, stretched polar vortexes bring less bitter cold than a split polar vortex (when the polar vortex breaks into two). However, with it occurring 10 times it brought a persistent cold.

    The second thing that affected the weather was the cold ocean. It made the air chilly at the Jersey Shore. The Atlantic City Marina was much colder than usual compared to Atlantic City International Airport.

    The ocean water was colder than normal this winter. It was 45 degrees in December, 40 degrees in January, and 39 degrees in February, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Also, the bays were super cold, even below 32 degrees for a while.

    The drought continues

    In addition to temperatures, we have to talk about precipitation. We did not get the rain or snow needed to pull us out of drought. In fact, in my winter outlook I said the following:

    “There should also be an average amount of storminess… Drought should recede during the winter, but I don’t believe it’ll be enough to cure our problems as we exit the season. Looking ahead, we’ll need a wetter-than-average spring to end the drought for good. Otherwise, there will be water problems.”

    That was true for New Jersey as a whole. However, for the South Jersey Shore, “extreme drought” lasted all winter long, according to the United States Drought Monitor. That’s the third level with level four being the worst. Statewide, most of the northern half of the state dropped from level two to level one for drought. This change occurred by the Feb. 27 update.

    Precipitation over the three months was between 6.18 inches at Atlantic City Marina and 8.70 inches in Galloway. This is for Atlantic and Cape May counties based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That’s 26% to 50% below average.

    Snowfall ranged from a little below average in Atlantic County to a little above average in Cape May County. Margate was the lowest at 10.3 inches. Lower Township was the highest at 17.5 inches. I’ll have a full snow season recap later in the month.

    Looking ahead

    March does not look like a very wintry month. After the frigid cold on March 2-3, temperatures will mostly be at or above average. This trend is expected through the middle of the month. Think highs in the 50s and 60s, cooler at the beaches as the daily, chilling sea breezes return.

    Cohen from AER believes one more shot of colder-than-average temperatures will arrive in the second half of March. If it does, we’re likely talking highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. That’s more of the typical wintertime cold, nothing exceptional.

    In terms of precipitation, there’s no strong lean toward a wetter- or drier-than-average month. Getting a normal amount of rain would be helpful. March is the wettest month of the year at Atlantic City Marina with 4.27 inches of rain. It’s the second-wettest month at Atlantic City International Airport, with 4.52 inches. That much rain would stop the drought from getting worse, but it wouldn’t make it better.

    By St. Patrick’s Day, we’ll need about an inch of rain each week. This is necessary to make up for the water that dries up from the ground. It’s also for the water that people use. To get ahead, we would need at least 1.25 inches a week.

  • Understanding Snow Forecasts: Meteorology vs. Weather Apps

    Understanding Snow Forecasts: Meteorology vs. Weather Apps

    Originally appearing on Shore Local News on Feb. 27. Visit my friends at Shore Local here!

    By Meteorologist Joe Martucci

    Five to seven days before the New Jersey nor’easter that never was on Feb. 20, I received many messages about it. Here’s three examples (edited for clarity):

    “How much snow are we getting Thursday? People in school are saying 15 inches.”

    “Joe, are we really supposed to get over a foot of snow on Thursday? Apple Weather told me.”

    “Someone said we are getting 15-18 inches of snow…”

    What happened last Thursday? Snowy coatings south of the Cape May Canal with a gentle breeze out of the northeast.

    These three messages were like dozens of others. Messages, comments, and posts to me all circled around the same concept: the generic weather phone app. Using it is fine 75% of the time. However, just like calling a 1-800 number, when you really need an answer, you want a human to help you out.

    This doesn’t mean the nor’easter didn’t happen at all. Norfolk, Va. reported 11 inches of snow, Chincoteague Island, Va. off the Delmarva Peninsula reported 6.5 inches, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina reported 3 to 6 inches of snow according to the National Weather Service.

    Visible satellite over the Mid-Atlantic after the Feb. 19-20, 2025 nor’easter. Note the bright white in eastern Virginia and North Carolina. That is snow cover. New Jersey, meanwhile, had none (NOAA).

    I, and every credible meteorologist I know of in the area, did not start putting out snow forecasts until Monday. That’s about 60 hours before any storm was supposed to come. My forecast, even on Monday, was for a lower impact event. No foot-plus forecasts or historic nor’easter for New Jersey.

    Now this is not because we meteorologists hunkered down in a basement and all decided to withhold the snow forecast from you. It’s because we know how nor’easters work and the limitations of computer modeling.

    Think about this: Meteorologists have to be accurate because they work for the public or their bosses. Phone apps? Not so much. They’re made by companies to make money, not to help people. They just spit out computer guesses with no real risk. That’s why an app might say a foot of snow one day, then an inch the next, and then 6 inches after that.

    Meteorologists, like the ones who work for the government or news outlets, are usually seen as people you can trust.

    A long time ago, our job started because we wanted to keep people safe. When we say it’s going to snow, most folks believe us more than their phone apps. Our weather predictions help people get ready for big storms – like knowing when to leave their homes or stock up on supplies. Take Superstorm Sandy, for example. People listened to us to figure out what to do, not just some computer message.

    Generic phone apps are quick, easy and give you an answer. That’s what we all want in life. I want that in life, too. But as they say, life is not always black or white. It’s just not that easy.

    The reason I waited until Monday to issue a snow forecast was because of computer model limitations and an understanding of how the atmosphere works.

    Weather predictions past 84 hours use global models. These models cover the whole Earth, about 12,430 miles from pole to pole. The distance from Ocean City, NJ, to Norfolk, Va., is just 1.5% of that, so it’s tiny compared to the model.

    Therefore, on Feb. 13, 14, 15 and even 16, it was fair to say that a nor’easter would be around New Jersey on Feb. 20. However, it would have been impossible to pinpoint a snow forecast. Even if the generic weather app were right it would have been pure luck – like throwing a dart in the bullseye blindfolded.

    Secondly, the nor’easter didn’t enter the United States’ West Coast until Sunday night to early Monday. That plays a role. When it enters the country, it can be sampled by the National Weather Service’s twice-daily weather balloon launches for weather data. That data then feeds into the weather computer models.

    Third was that there was going to be plenty of dry air to the north. This was always going to bring a sharp cutoff in snowfall totals. It was why I thought our third “South Jersey Snow Special” was a good possibility on Monday, despite it not working out that way. But again, when the snow map first came out Monday, the highest snowfall forecast was 1.5 to 3 inches of snow for Atlantic and Cape May counties. Places like Medford and Trenton would see no accumulating snow.

    The reality is that 75% of the time, using your generic phone app is fine. If it’s dry, it won’t really matter to us if it’s sunny, or partly sunny, or if it’s 65 degrees or 68 degrees. I get that.

    However, when the specifics of the forecast really matter, that’s when a meteorologist comes in. I used to work at the weather consulting company WeatherWorks in Hackettstown. We worked with movie production companies. They needed accurate cloud cover forecasts. A phone app can’t do that. A meteorologist can.

    The same goes for snow, hurricanes and coastal flooding. It’s going to take longer to get an answer from us than the phone app, but it has a better chance of being the right answer, and giving you the context you need. That’s why many of us still check in with meteorologists daily, even if the next week will be mild and clear.

    Last week I had to call the Internal Revenue Service for something. After dialing the number, I pressed one automated prompt, then another automated prompt that I thought would help me out. It left me without the answer I needed and once the automated prompt ended, the call ended.

    After a few tries of different combinations, I reached a very pleasant man in West Virginia. I explained my problem and he helped me out right away.

    Human knowledge and context, aren’t going away soon.

  • South Jersey: The Unexpected Snow Capital of NJ

    South Jersey: The Unexpected Snow Capital of NJ

    Read the Feb. 20 article in Shore Local News here!

    NOTE: This article came out on Feb. 20 but was written on Feb. 14. As we know, there was no snowy nor’easter in New Jersey this week. That stayed in Virginia. This article is modified to adjust for that.

    With two South Jersey Snow Specials down and another one possibly on the way, our area could beat out the typically snowy, hilly northwest New Jersey for the snowiest place in the Garden State.

    As of this writing, we didn’t know what would happen with a nor’easter anticipated on Feb. 20, but it turns out it brought a record snow to southeastern Virginia. Meanwhile, only Cape May City saw coatings. There was no third South Jersey Snow Special.

    However, Jan. 6 saw Wildwood Crest’s 8-inch report as the highest snowfall total in the state. 4 to 6 inches of snow fell in places like Ocean City, Somers Point and Margate, too. Meanwhile, once you went north of the White Horse Pike, snowfall totals were generally below 2 inches.

    Then, on Feb. 11-12, it happened again. In an all-snow event, Cape May was in the top spot with 8.8 inches of snow. However, more than 6 inches of snow fell in eastern Atlantic County, as well as all of Cape May County; 8.1 inches were measured by Dan Forshaw in Somers Point, a volunteer weather observer for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS). In Ocean County, 6 inches fell as reported by another CoCoRaHS spotter.

    It’s rare for the southeastern part of New Jersey to get more snow than the usually snowier and colder northern areas of the state.

    Since the winter of 1939-1940, there have been eight times when either the Cape May area or Atlantic City International Airport got more snow than other major weather stations in New Jersey. These other stations are: Trenton, New Brunswick, Newark, and Belvidere. This information comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.

    Here’s a look at those winters, along with the location of the snowiest place and how much snow they received. All data are measured in inches.

    1939-1940: Cape May area, 28.1.

    1967-1968: AC Airport, 18.5.

    1978-1979: AC Airport, 43.1.

    1988-1989: Cape May (Lower Twp.), 21.2.

    1989-1990: AC Airport, 23.0.

    2009-2010: AC Airport, 58.1.

    2021-2022: AC Airport, 33.3.

    2024-2025 (thru Feb. 15); AC Airport, 13.8.

    If it happened before, then this winter has the possibility of doing it again.

    There are specific reasons why each winter had more snow here than the rest of the state. They can be grouped into a few categories.

    This winter, just like in 2009-2010 and 1988-1989, the storms that make snow are coming from so far south that our area is getting the most of the snow in New Jersey. When you go north, you get too far from where the storms are so places like Belvidere or Newark didn’t get much snow because it was too dry there.

    The winter of 2021-2022 had that as well. A storm on Jan. 3, 2022 brought over 8 inches of snow to the South Jersey shore. Meanwhile, north of Interstate 195, there was no measurable snow.

    However, later in the month, the Blizzard of 2022 happened on Jan. 28-29. The storm track was so far east that the Jersey Shore saw the most precipitation. Twelve to 20 inches of snow fell here, but Atlantic City International Airport only picked up 16 inches of snow. Meanwhile, Trenton and Belvidere saw less than half of that.

    Some were just luck. The winters of 1967-1968, 1978-1979, and 1989-1990 all saw about the same amount of snow throughout the state. However, Atlantic City International Airport or the Cape May area saw just a little more than the others.

    We need to wait and see how much snow we get from the anticipated Feb. 20 nor’easter. I think it’s possible for the South Jersey shore to get more snow than other parts of New Jersey this winter. However, we’ll need one more South Jersey Snow Special to do so.

    Temperatures are expected to be colder than average for our area from Feb. 22 through the middle of March, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. While that doesn’t guarantee snow, that’s a help.

    On the other hand, the forecasts for the upper-level weather pattern suggest that winter storms will take a more northerly track. It could be that when it’s cold enough for snow, it’s dry, or when a storm arrives, it warms up. That would mean less snow here compared to climatologically snowier spots farther north in the state.

    Plus, as we deal with every year, our snow season is just shorter. Our average last measurable snow in Lower Township is March 2, according to NOAA. At Atlantic City International Airport the average is March 6. Trenton, Newark and Belvidere’s are all at least 12 days later. That gives these locations a longer runway to make up their snow deficit.

    Ultimately, we are progressing well to once again create history in this region of the Garden State, but assistance will be required to achieve this goal.

    If you have a small open space on your property and like weather, please consider joining CoCoRaHS. See https://www.cocorahs.org/application.aspx

    Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.sparkable.opalstacked.com/.